Weather prediction skills

(Survival manual / Prepper articles / Weather prediction skills)

 A.  Head For The Hills?
25 April  2013, Survival Life.com, by Joe Pasted from: http://www.survivallife.com/2013/04/25/head-for-the-hills/

Have you ever headed out in the morning to what you expect to be a bright and sunny day, only to have the bottom fall out of the sky hours later, leaving you soaked and miserable?

I have…

And while the weather is always unpredictable at best (especially in the spring) there is one simple trick that can you can do in order to keep yourself out of rough weather…. most of the time at least.

forecast cloudRead the clouds!

Cloud reading has been used as a basic primitive weather prediction for thousands of years, and unfortunately our protected, indoor lifestyle has caused us to forget how to read the world around us.

Clouds can easily be broken into four categories. These categories are high clouds, middle clouds, low clouds and clouds with vertical growth.

High clouds form at 16,000 – 43,000 feet. Basically, these are the clouds that you only encounter on the top of really high mountains or at the cruising altitude of a jet airplane. Due to the extreme conditions at which they form, they tend to be comprised primarily of ice crystals.

  •  High clouds include:
  • _Cirrostratus
  • _Cirrocumulus
  • _Cirrus
  • Middle clouds form at 6,500 to 23,000 feet. They are comprised of water, and, if cold enough, ice.
  • Middle clouds consist of:
  • _Altocumulus
  • _Altostratus
  • Low clouds form below 6,500 feet. These clouds are the ones that like to hang-around just above tall buildings. These clouds tend to contain water, but can also be comprised of snow if the weather gets cold enough. Low clouds include:_Stratocumulus
  • _Nimbostratus
  • _Stratus
  • And last, but not least, are clouds with vertical growth which tend to have a base that hangs really low (5,000 feet) and a top that climbs really high (over 50,000 feet). Clouds in this category include:_
    • _Cumulonimbus
  • _Cumulus

Clouds are one of the most reliable predictors of weather and cloud reading is a basic skill that every survivalist, hiker, camper and outdoors man should know. So how do you “read” the clouds? It’s fairly simple when you know what you are looking at.

There are 10 types of clouds that you should be able to recognize, but if you get their names confused, just remember that the higher the clouds, the better the weather will be.

forecast cloud read
1.  Cirrocumulus Clouds look like ripples of water on the surface of a lake. There are a sign of good weather and often dissipate to blue sky.
2. Altocumulus Clouds are fair weather clouds. They usually occur after a storm.
3.  Cumulonimbus Clouds are low thunder clouds that bring hail, strong wind, thunder and lightning. They have a characteristic flat, anvil-like top.
4.  Cumulus Clouds are easily recognizable, large, white, fluffy clouds. They indicate fair weather when they are widely separated, but if they are large and many headed, they are capable of bringing heavy showers.
5.  Cirrus Clouds are high altitude, wispy clouds, seen in fine weather.
6.  Cirrostratus Clouds are made up of ice particles and form a halo around the sun. If a Cirrus filled sky darkens and turns to Cirrostratus it is a sign of rain or snow, depending on temperature.
7.  Altostratus Clouds form a greyish veil over the sun or moon. If they get darker and thicken, it is a sign that rain is on the way.
8.  Nimbostratus Clouds form low blankets of cloud and indicate rain or snow, lasting for several hours.
9.  Stratocumulus Clouds can form a lumpy mass covering the entire sky and may produce light rain, but usually dissipate by the late afternoon or evening.
10. Stratus Clouds are low clouds that form a fog like layer and may produce drizzle. If they form thickly at night and cover the morning sky, they will usually burn off and produce a fine day.

So the next time you head out for the day, take a quick look at the sky and make a judgment call on whether or not you should bring sunglasses or an umbrella.

.

B. Weather Forecasting
WeatherShack.com
Pasted from: http://www.weathershack.com/static/ed-weather-forecasting.html

Sharpen Your Weather Forecasting Skillt

Deterioraating Weather Indicators:

  • Clouds lowering and thickening, ceiling lowers
  • Puffy clouds begin to develop vertically and darken
  • Sky is dark and threatening to the West
  • Clouds increasing in numbers, moving rapidly across the sky
  • Clouds at different heights moving in different directions
  • Clouds moving from East or Northeast towards the South
  • Heavy rain occurring at night
  • Barometer falling steadily or rapidly
  • Smoke from stacks lowers
  • Static on AM radio
  • Wind shifting North to East and possibly through East to South
  • There is a ring (halo) around the moon
  • If on land, leaves that grow according to prevailing winds turn over and show their backs
  • Strong wind and/or a red sky in the morning
  • Temperature far above or below normal for the time of year

Impending Precipitation Weather Indicators:

  • Distant objects seem to stand above the horizon
  • Sounds are very clear and can be heard for great distances
  • Transparent veil-like cirrus clouds thicken, ceiling lowers
  • Hazy and sticky air. Rain may occur in 18-36 hours
  • Halo around the sun or moon
  • Increasing South wind with clouds moving from the West
  • Wind (especially North wind) shifting to West and then South
  • Steadily falling barometer
  • Pale sunset
  • Red sky to the West at dawn
  • No dew after a hot day

Impending Strong Winds Weather Indicators:

  • Light, scattered clouds alone in a clear sky
  • Sharp, clearly defined edges to clouds
  • Yellow sunset
  • Unusually bright stars
  • Major changes in the temperature

Clearing Weather Indicators:

  • Cloud bases rise
  • Smoke from stacks rise
  • Wind shifts to West, especially from East through South
  • Barometer rises quickly
  • A cold front has passed in the past 4 to 7 hours
  • Gray early morning sky shows signs of clearing
  • Morning fog or dew
  • Rain stopping and clouds breaking away at sunset

Continuing Fair Weather Indicators:

  • Early morning fog that clears
  • Gentle wind from the West or Northwest
  • Barometer steady or rising slightly
  • Red sky to East with clear sky to the West at sunset
  • Bright moon and light breeze at night
  • Heavy dew or frost
  • Clear blue morning sky to West
  • Clouds dot the afternoon summer sky.\
    .

WEATHER FORECAST CHART

 

WIND DIRECTION: BAROMETER (AIR PRESSURE) AT SEA LEVEL: EXPECTED WEATHER:
SW To NW 30.10 to 30.20, steady Fair with little temp. change for 2 days
SW To NW 30.10 to 30.20, rising fast Fair followed by precipitation in 2 days
SW To NW 30.20 or above, steady Continued fair with little temp. change
SW To NW 30.20 or above, falling slowly Slowly rising temp; fair for 2 days
S To SE 30.10 to 30.20, falling slowly Precipitation within 24 hours
S To SE 30.10 to 30.20, falling fast Increasing wind; precipitation in 12 – 24 hours
SE To NE 30.10 to 30.20, falling slowly Precipitation in 12 – 18 hours
SE To NE 30.10 to 30.20, falling fast Wind rising; precipitation within 12 hours
E To NE 30.10 or above, falling slowly Rain (snow) within 24 hours in winter
E To NE 30.10 or below, falling fast Precipitation, wind
SE To NE 30.00 or below, falling slowly Steady rain for 1 – 2 days
SE To NE 30.00 or below, falling fast Rain and high wind clearing in 36 hours
S to SW 30.00 or below, rising slowly Clearing within a few hours then fair
S to E 29.80 or below, falling fast Severe storm imminent, clearing in 24 hrs
E to N 29.80 or below, falling fast Severe northeast gale, precipitation
Going to W 29.80 or below, rising fast Clearing and colder

Naturally there are other factors than these, but this gives you a rough guide to start with.

Tools to help you make a reasonable forecast:

forecast tools

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Filed under Prepper articles, Survival Manual

Give us your tired & impoverished little immigrant children

(News &Editorial/Give us your tired & impoverished little immigrant children)

border1 race1

A.  OBAMA’S UNLOADING DISEASE-CARRYING ILLEGAL ALIENS INTO LARGE U.S. CITIES IS A ‘PERFECT STORM’ FOR PANDEMIC DISEASE OUTBREAK IN THE USA
06-29-2014 8:07 pm – Mike Adams – Natural News
Pasted from: http://www.libertynewsonline.com/article_301_35760.php

The federal government’s policies of allowing the mass migration of infectious disease-carrying people into the United States while transporting them to America’s largest cities is a “perfect blueprint” for seeding a deadly pandemic. Right now, we are witnessing the engineering of a public health and humanitarian disaster optimized for rapid disease transmission that puts all Americans at risk.

border1 children1

Consider what’s happening right now:
1) Over 30,000 illegal immigrants are flooding into Texas each month (about a thousand a day).
2) Virtually none of these immigrants are being properly screened for infectious disease, nor vaccinated. (Not that I’m saying vaccines are the cure, but this is what the government claims all Americans should be doing to their own children, you see. The hypocrisy is obscene…)
3) Some of these immigrants have already been found to carry swine flu, AIDS, influenza, scabies, lice and other diseases that are made worse by the highly unsanitary conditions in which these immigrants are living during their travels.
4) Are these immigrants quarantined in the way the CDC might demand the quarantine of a U.S. schoolchild whose parents refuse vaccinations? NO. There is no quarantine in place, and there is no plan to require medical screening of these people.
5) Instead, these immigrants are loaded onto buses and shipped to other large U.S. cities (like Phoenix, Arizona) to be dumped onto the open streets, regardless of what infectious diseases they carry.

The perfect blueprint for causing a nationwide pandemic of infectious disease

When I realized the pattern of what was happening here, it suddenly become obvious: this the “perfect storm” of infectious disease. And the White House stance of standing down while this public health crisis worsens is beyond reprehensible… it is negligent and dangerous to us all.

It almost seems as if a runaway pandemic is what this administration wants. Unable to accomplish anything based on its failed philosophies of usurpation and despotism, this administration’s only remaining tool seem to be fomenting crisis, then exploiting that crisis for political gain.

After all, compare the government’s handling of unvaccinated schoolchildren to its handling of illegal immigrants. Infectious disease is so dangerous and deadly in public schools, we’re told, that even a healthy child with excellent hygiene and zero symptoms of any sickness must be denied a public education if they refuse to be vaccinated against diseases that haven’t existed in America for decades (such as polio).

But at the same time, the White House and its supporters openly welcome massive waves of illegal immigrant children flooding across the border in the United States regardless of what diseases they may be carrying: AIDS, swine flu, tuberculosis, influenza and others. After all, those are future Democratic voters!

This unrelenting wave of immigrants — which the White House has no intention of stopping — is already infecting U.S. Border Patrol agents to potentially deadly diseases. “…Doctors providing medical care for immigrants being released by U.S. Border Patrol ahead of their court dates say those recent detainees were not appropriately screened or treated for illness while in federal custody,” reports the Texas Tribune. (1)

The paper goes on to report:
Officials with the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reported that conditions there posed a high risk for infectious disease outbreaks. “Our staff believe the children’s living conditions pose a high potential for infectious disease outbreak among the children and staff,” department spokeswoman Carrie Williams said.

Most illegal immigrant children NOT being vaccinated.

Note carefully that these children are not being vaccinated, even though the federal government insists that vaccines are “the cure” for halting the spread of infectious disease. Even though the CDC erupts in a fit of disease doomsday panic every time one U.S. child escapes vaccination while attending public school, the CDC is completely silent about the entire southern border of the USA now functioning as a “pandemic gateway” of unbounded infectious disease.

So while the U.S. schoolchildren who live in first-world homes with running water and excellent hygiene are singled out for posing a “threat to public health,” third-world children living in wildly unsanitary conditions with near-zero hygiene are simply loaded into buses and dropped off in large U.S. cities where they can immediately infect others. The hygiene situation is so bad in these groups that Homeland Security actually put out a call for someone to donate 45,000 pairs of underwear because so many of the immigrants don’t have any. (2)

It doesn’t take a medical genius to realize that impoverished, desperate immigrants living in extremely unsanitary conditions pose a far greater threat to public health than American schoolchildren from health-conscious families who choose not to inject their children with mercury (found in many vaccines). This issue of public health, by the way, is a totally separate issue from the issues of immigrant policy, humanitarian rescue, and so on. Even if America decides to rescue and welcome millions of new immigrants, why aren’t they being screened for infectious disease first?

Thousands of disease-carrying undocumented immigrants being released in Arizona, California, New York and Texas

DHS does claim that immigrant children are examined and vaccinated once they are relocated to FEMA camps — “federal emergency shelters” — but here’s the problem with that: all the shelters in Texas are beyond capacity, and because of that, these immigrants are simply being loaded onto buses and dropped off into the open streets in Arizona and other states.

There was even a plan to fly disease-carrying immigrants from Texas to California and drop them off in the airports there. (6) Airports are the ideal locations for spreading infectious disease because air travel is the fastest mode of transportation. Every CDC infectious disease scientists knows this statement is irrefutable.

“Not only does the federal government have no plan to stop this disgraceful policy, it also has no plan to deal with the endless waves of illegal aliens once they are released here,” says Arizona Governor Jan Brewer. “If the Obama administration put half the effort into securing our border as it has invested to institute this operation, our state and nation would not be facing this situation. This is a crisis of the federal government’s creation, and the fact that the border remains unsecure — now apparently intentionally — while this operation continues full-steam ahead is deplorable.” (3)

Intentionally designed to accelerate an epidemic?
If you wanted to cause a disease epidemic across the United States, how would you accomplish that? You’d find a group of infected people and then transplant them to the large population centers across the country so that they could infect as many others as possible. If possible, you’d use airports to accelerate the multiplication effect of infectious disease, too.

Remember the movie Twelve Monkeys with Bruce Willis and Brad Pitt? In that film, the deadly virus that wiped out humanity was intentionally released in an international airport.

And if you look at where these immigrants are being “dumped” across America, it’s not in rural areas with low population density. No, they are being let off the buses in some of America’s highest-population-density cities like Phoenix, Houston and San Antonio.

It’s the “perfect storm” to spread infections and disease across America and create a massive public health/humanitarian crisis that could have been easily avoided by screening these immigrants for infectious disease before releasing them (or by denying them illegal entry in the first place and requiring them to apply for LEGAL immigration like all the other immigrants who followed the rules).

border1 children2

[Possible cartel foot soldiers (?) and future gang members (?) posing as "children" (above) are being
allowed into the USA, then set free on Mainstreet, Middleamerica.  Anyone see a problem here? Mr Larry]

U.S. government has a long history of exploiting minorities for inhumane medical experiments

I realize this conclusion is difficult for many people to swallow. Then again, most people have no idea the NIH funded inhumane medical experiments on prisoners in Guatemala, or that the U.S. government has a long and deplorable history of using its own citizens as guinea pigs in deadly medical experiments fully described in this article. Favorite picks for victims in such government-run experiments include blacks, minorities, soldiers and prisoners.

Even if the spread of infectious disease is not the deliberate intention of these actions, it is nevertheless an unintentional effect of them. That this is allowed to happen in America today is highly irresponsible and beyond medical negligence. The Obama administration, through its refusal to halt this wave of immigrations and secure the border, is putting the health of all Americans at risk and punishing all those immigrants who followed the rules and obtained immigration legally.

You know how people who refuse vaccines are often blamed for putting others at risk of infectious disease? (It’s a false argument, but one that’s frequently made nonetheless.) President Obama is now exposing EVERYONE in America to infectious disease risk by refusing to enforce immigration law. We are quite literally under a human wave biological attack, intentional or otherwise.

Under orderly immigration, there are rigorous medical checks required for each new immigrant. Those medical requirements do a good job of screening out most infectious disease. But under this human wave of immigration chaos that’s now invading Texas and overrunning small towns, there are no legitimate medical checks being conducted at all. Click here for a disturbing video news report by Jon Bowne and Kit Daniels.

Swine flu, AIDS and more
As you ponder this, keep in mind that swine flu has already been detected in the immigrants, according to Valley Central news. (4)
KRGV News also reports that many of these immigrants are exposed to HIV during their journey northward, bringing the virus to the United States as they cross the border. (5)
“We have had a break out of medical conditions such as lice, bed bugs, scabies, different types of illnesses that are occurring: strep, sore throats, coughs,” an on-site women told KHOU news in Texas. (8)
If infectious disease isn’t bad enough, this immigration wave also consists of “sex offenders, murder suspects and gang members,” according to a KRGV news report.

These are the kind of people Obama and his party are allowing to flood into the United States for political purposes, even if doing so means putting the health of all Americans at risk. After all, there are elections to win, and the most important thing is to flood more illegal voters into the country so that upcoming elections can be won, right?

Footnote Sources for this article include:
(1) http://www.texastribune.org/2014/06/24/healt…
(2) http://houston.cbslocal.com/2014/06/24/homel…
(3) http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/20…
(4) http://www.valleycentral.com/news/story.aspx…
(5) http://www.krgv.com/news/few-young-illegal-i…
(6) http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/23/us…
(7) http://www.krgv.com/news/brooks-county-ranch…
(8) http://www.khou.com/news/texas-news/Woman-sp…

SOURCE: http://www.naturalnews.com/045773_pandemic_outbreak_mass_migration_ public_health_risk.html – See more at: http://www.libertynewsonline.com/article_301_35760.php#sthash.hlZV99Hd.dpuf

B.  The Many Contributions To America, by Illegal Immigrants
19 May 2012, Gate, pasted by chuck
Excerpts pasted from: http://www.norcalblogs.com/gate/2010/05/19/mexicos-contribution-to-the-beautiful-sonoran-desert-in-arizona/

border1 trash1

The citizens of Arizona would like everyone who plans on boycotting them, to come on down and see the great contribution the Mexican Nationals and other illegal immigrants have blessed the once drab looking Sonoran Desert with. So why not take a vacation this summer and stroll on down immigrant Highway to see for yourself all the wonderful abstract works of art that they have left for us to enjoy.

What you see in the pictures, is an illegal super highway that goes from the border of Mexico to just South of Tucson Arizona.  The highway follows a washout that smugglers use to bring everything from illegal aliens to illegal drugs into the country over.  Every dry season the washout fills up with over 5,000 discarded backpacks, countless water bottles, tampons, drugs, food cans, toothpaste, blankets, toys, syringes, used condoms, and piles upon piles of human feces.  When the rainy season comes, most of the contents of this landfill of human waste will get washed away into the local rivers and eventually be carried out to sea.

border1 trash2 .

border1 race

Wake up America!

Wake up and see the mess that the liberals have been turning a blind eye towards for way too long. Take a big whiff and smell the stench that permeates from the washout. A stench that is created by human waste that is washing into the rivers and into the drinking water of some truly innocent unsuspecting humans and animals.  My advice to anyone thinking about boycotting Arizona, is that you should instead boycott the Democrat party and the businesses of any and all liberals who think this is OK.

C.  Medical staff warned: Keep your mouths shut about illegal immigrants or face arrest
2 July 2014,  FoxNews.com, By Todd Starnes
Pasted from: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/07/02/medical-staff-warned-keep-quiet-about-illegal-immigrants-or-face-arrest/

Editor’s note: The contractor running the refugee camp at Lackland Air Force Base is “BCFS,” not “Baptist Family and Children’s Services” — as noted in a previous version of this story.
A government-contracted security force threatened to arrest doctors and nurses if they divulged any information about the contagion threat at a refugee camp housing illegal alien children at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas, sources say.

In spite of the threat, several former camp workers broke their confidentiality agreements and shared exclusive details with me about the dangerous conditions at the camp. They said taxpayers deserve to know about the contagious diseases and the risks the children pose to Americans. I have agreed to not to disclose their identities because they fear retaliation and prosecution.

My sources say Americans should be very concerned about the secrecy of the government camps.

“There were several of us who wanted to talk about the camps, but the agents made it clear we would be arrested,” a psychiatric counselor told me. “We were under orders not to say anything.”
The sources said workers were guarded by a security force from the BCFS, which the Department of Health and Human Services hired to run the Lackland Camp.

The sources say security forces called themselves the “Brown Shirts.”
“It was a very submissive atmosphere,” the counselor said. “Once you stepped onto the grounds, you abided by their laws – the Brown Shirt laws.”
She said the workers were stripped of their cellphones and other communication devices. Anyone caught with a phone was immediately fired.
“Everyone was paranoid,” she said. “The children had more rights than the workers.”
She said children in the camp had measles, scabies, chicken pox and strep throat as well as mental and emotional issues.

“It was not a good atmosphere in terms of health,” she said. “I would be talking to children and lice would just be climbing down their hair.”
A former nurse at the camp told me she was horrified by what she saw.
“We have so many kids coming in that there was no way to control all of the sickness – all this stuff coming into the country,” she said. “We were very concerned at one point about strep going around the base.”

Both the counselor and the nurse said their superiors tried to cover up the extent of the illnesses.
“When they found out the kids had scabies, the charge nurse was adamant – ‘Don’t mention that. Don’t say scabies,’” the nurse recounted. “But everybody knew they had scabies. Some of the workers were very concerned about touching things and picking things up. They asked if they should be concerned, but they were told don’t worry about it.”

The nurse said the lice issue was epidemic – but everything was kept “hush-hush.”
“You could see the bugs crawling through their hair,” she said. “After we would rinse out their hair, the sink would be loaded with black bugs.”
The nurse told me she became especially alarmed because their files indicated the children had been transported to Lackland on domestic charter buses and airplanes.
“That’s what alerted me,” she said. “Oh, my God. They’re flying these kids around. Nobody knows that these children have scabies and lice. To tell you the truth, there’s no way to control it.”
I don’t mean to upset anyone’s Independence Day vacation plans, but were these kids transported to the camps before or after they were deloused? Anyone who flies the friendly skies could be facing a public health concern.

The counselor told me the refugee camp resembled a giant emergency room – off limits to the public.
“They did not want the community to know,” she said. “I initially spoke out at Lackland because I had a concern the children’s mental health care was not being taken care of.”
She said the breaking point came when camp officials refused to hospitalize several children who were suicidal.
“I made a recommendation that a child needed to be sent to a psychiatric unit,” the counselor told me. “He was reaching psychosis. He was suicidal. Instead of treating him, they sent him off to a family in the United States.”

She said she filed a Child Protective Services report and quit her job.
“I didn’t want to lose my license if this kid committed suicide,” she told me. “I was done.”
The counselor kept a detailed journal about what happened during her tenure at the facility.
“When people read that journal they are going to be astonished,” she said. ‘I don’t think they will believe what is going on in America.
So it was not a great surprise, she said, when she received a call from federal agents demanding that she return to the military base and hand over her journal.
She said she declined to do so.
“I didn’t go back to Lackland,” she said.

Both workers told me while they have no regrets, they want to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.
“They’re going to crush the system,” the nurse told me. “We can’t sustain this. They are overwhelming the system and I think it’s a travesty.”

BCFS spokeswoman Krista Piferrer tells me the agency takes “any allegation of malfeasance or inappropriate care of a child very seriously.”
“There are a number of checks and balances to ensure children are receiving appropriate and adequate mental health care,” she said.

Piferrer said the clinicians are supervised by a federal field specialist from HHS’s Office of Refugee Resettlement. She also said BCFS have 58 medical professionals serving at Lackland.
“Every illness, whether it is a headache or something more serious, is recorded in a child’s electronic medical record and posted on WebEOC – a real-time, web-based platform that is visible to not only BCFS but the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,” she said.

As for those brown shirts, the BCFS said they are “incident management team personnel” – who happen to wear tan shirts.
My sources say Americans should be very concerned about the secrecy of the government camps.
This is just the beginning,” one source told me. “It is a long-term financial responsibility.”

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D. Texas governor pushes for troops on US border amid ‘refugee crisis’
3 July 2014 — Rick Perry calls for temporary militarisation of southern border as pressure builds on Obama to visit camps holding children
See article:  http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/03/texas-governor-troops-border-refugee-crisis-child-migrants

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Walking to your destination

(Survival Manual/Prepper articles/Walking to your destination)

A. How Far can You Walk in a Day When Bugging Out?
Feb 2014, PreparednessAdvice.com, by admin – Howard
Pasted from: http://preparednessadvice.com/survival/far-can-walk-day-bugging-foot/#.UwM9IYmYbmh

bugging 2

The question how far can you walk in one day recently came up in regards to bugging out.  This led to quite a discussion, and many different opinions.  For the last twenty-five or so years, I have done a lot of hiking in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and can cover some pretty good distances.

However most of the time I am with someone else who is in shape to hike and we are not carrying much weight.  A seven-mile hike in about 2-3 hours is quite doable and I am 70 years old.  But that brings up the question of how much weight could I carry and could I do it day after day, while sleeping on the ground and making camp.  No nice soft lounge chair in which to recover.

A young man in good shape normally walks around three miles an hour, and can do it all day on level ground with little to no weight.  But remember the speed of the march is determined by the weakest member of the group not the strongest.  When bugging out the weight of a pack is going to slow him down.

Other factors that determine your speed are the weather, terrain, the condition of the trail and what you are carrying.  Do you have children or elderly people with you, do any of your group have medical conditions that slows them down.  Another factor is threats, are you having to hide to avoid other people.

The U.S. Army Ranger Training includes a 12-mile forced, tactical ruck march with full gear from Camp Rogers to Camp Darby.  This is the last test during one phase and is a pass/fail event.  If the Ranger student fails to finish the march in less than 3 hours, he is dropped from the course.  With the ruck and their other gear, they are carrying 65–90 pounds.  Now this is an extreme case, very few of us could even come close.

Many of us would be traveling with a family and might even have to carry younger children or infants.  In addition, we would have to carry our food and other supplies, set up a camp each day and take care of other chores.

I have done a bit of research for this post and looked at the speeds that were considered fast in traveling across the American plains.

A pioneer wagon might do 15-25 miles on a very good day, if it was being pulled by horses or mules. Oxen on the other hand only traveled one or two miles an hour but didn’t require as much rest or as good a forage as horses or mules. They might do 10-12 miles in a 10-hour day

A horse will walk 3-4 mph, trot about 8-10 mph and gallop depending on the ability of the animal and the terrain at 30-40 mph.  According to the U S Cavalry, a horse can cover some 30-40 miles a day, but can be pushed to double that, but then will be pretty much spent for several days while he recuperates.

I spoke to a local scout leader and was told that many of the young boys would struggle on a three or four mile hike in the mountains when carrying a full pack.

Now I see some preparedness books that tell you that when bugging out your pack should weigh up to a third of your body weight.  Now this may be a good guideline for a twenty year old in good shape.  But it won’t work for the rest of us.

Freezedryguy.com an old friend of mine and an old SF guy,  says that most people way over estimate their ability to walk in planning for bugging out.  He feels that most family groups with children or elderly will travel closer to 3-5 miles a day when walking cross country.  A lot will depend on you and your families physical and emotional condition and  don’t forget very good foot ware.

After talking with several-experienced hikers and some friends who have seen a real evacuation by foot I believe that most people over estimate the distances they can walk.  This is largely the result of having to travel at the pace of the slowest member of your group.

Most family groups with young children or elderly would average closer to 5 miles a day.  Young people in average shape should do 20 miles or so in good terrain for the first couple of days, then blisters, light rations and other problems will slow them down. So plan on your bug out taking longer then you expect if you are traveling by foot. Howard

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B. How to Go Unnoticed
Edited by FatDuckling, IngeborgK, DifuWu, Katie and 11 others
Pasted from: http://www.wikihow.com/Go-Unnoticed

bugging 1

This is a guide for those who desire to go unnoticed or hide in plain sight.

1. Ascertain why you don’t want to be noticed. Whether for a game, avoiding someone or just to blend and relax. It’s easier to know what you’re doing and why.

2. Dress plainly. One of the most important things you can do is dress down. Jeans and a T-shirt are generally good. Don’t wear tight jeans, low-cut shirts, or tons of make-up if you’re a girl. If you’re a guy, don’t wear your jeans half-way down your butt and a T that’s way too big. You’re trying not to stand out. It is also best to avoid bright colors, especially reds, oranges and yellows, especially when these colors come in stripes across the body. The human brain is wired to react to these colors, leading you to be noticed more easily.

3. Act as if you belong even if you don’t. People notice people who look as though they don’t fit far quicker than people who look as if they walk down this street every day. Practice feeling comfortable in any setting – this takes some confidence.

4. Act natural. If something catches your eye in a shop go look at it, if you feel hungry go get food. If every third person has a shopping bag, go buy something. If half the people around you are eating, then eat. People tend to pass over people who look preoccupied doing something else.

5. Be quiet. It doesn’t seem important but people hear easier than they see in crowded places. Even if a person is not looking at you they can still hear you.

6. Be still. If pressed stand still. People notice movement more than shapes. Don’t become a statue. Just stand still like you don’t have a reason to move, not like you have a reason not to.

7. Walk with your head down. That way you can move slower if you want and people can’t see your face as easily.

Tips:

  • Don’t look people in the eye. They will definitely notice. Keep your head down.
  • If you see someone you know don’t go and greet them. Walk past and see if they notice you. This is a good test for your covertness.
  • If you’re following someone don’t always keep your eyes on them, reflective glass is good. If they walk into a shop look in the window of one across from it or look in the shop next door, don’t follow them in.
  • Get lost in a crowd. A person in fifty is harder to spot than a person in five.
  • If you’re avoiding someone don’t try to hide behind a wall or something if they look your way, just keep right on doing whatever you were doing. A person jumping behind a wall is very noticeable.

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The Human Ponzi scheme

(News & Editorial/The Human Ponzi scheme)

 Scale Matters
11 January 2013, The AutomaticEarth.com,
Pasted from: http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/scale-matters.html

Scale matters. When it changes, other things change as a function of it, often in unpredictable ways. Emergent properties are system characteristics that come into existence as a result of small and simple units of organization being combined to form large and complex multi-unit organizational structures. One can know everything there is to know about the original simple units and yet be unable to predict the characteristics of the larger system that emerges as many units come together to interact as a larger whole.

ponzi fractal

[Fractal development and organization: As scale changes,  either fewer or more units evolve or devolve, providing input or detracting from the whole. Biological entities in their particular environments interact with the larger functionality creating variable outcomes based on changes in their environment, actual or perceived changes in resources, and the social structures between units. Mr. Larry]

For instance, knowing everything about an individual cell sheds no light on the behavior of a sophisticated multicellular organism. At a higher level of organization, knowing everything about an organism does not predict crowd behavior, the functioning of an ecosystem, the organization of stratified societies, or the dynamics of geopolitics as societies interact with one another. The complex whole is always far more than just the sum of its parts.

Human social organization is particularly flexible when it comes to changes in scale. It can function in a myriad forms – from simple, generalist tribal associations, where everyone knows everyone else and interactions are grounded in established personal relationships, to the most complex, specialized and hierarchical imperial civilizations, where emergent connections and institutional structures must inevitably transcend the personal.

Where human societies find themselves along that continuum will depend on many local factors, including the nature, extent, accessibility and storability of the resource base over time, as well as the potential for leveraging human labor, historically using animals. Energy, and particularly energy returned on energy invested (ie the potential to control substantial energy surpluses) is critical. The greater the extent to which substantial, storable resource surpluses can be amassed and centrally controlled, the more likely a complex hierarchical organizational structure is to emerge. Where surpluses are small, resources cannot be stored, human efforts cannot be leveraged, or key resources are less subject to control, much smaller scale, simpler and more horizontally structured groups would be expected instead.

 Forms of organization based on agriculture are inherently both expansionist and catabolic. Existing ecosystems are destroyed to make way for patches of monocrop, rapidly converting the productive potential of the land into human biomass at the expense of biodiversity and soil fertility. Many hands are needed to work the land, so many children are produced, but as they grow up, more land must be cultivated every generation, because the existing land cannot accommodate the rapidly rising number of mouths to feed. Carrying capacity is, however, limited.

This in-built need to expand, sometimes to the scale of an imperium in the search for new territory, means that the process is grounded in ponzi dynamics. Expansion stops when no new territories can be subsumed, and contraction will follow as the society consumes its internal natural capital. Previous agricultural societies have left desert in their wake when that natural capital has been exhausted.

Limits to growth are not a new phenomenon, nor is collapse when expansion is no longer possible. The difference this time is that we are approaching hard limits at a global scale, there is nowhere left to expand to, modernity has greatly increased the scope and the rate of our catabolic potential, and therefore the collapse will be the most widespread human civilization has faced.

  Some societies are more despotic than others. Elite control over resources, distribution of surpluses, or monolithic infrastructure, such as major dams, confers power and strengthens hierarchy. Where surpluses are substantial, controllable and storable, and can support a large percentage of the population not required to work the land directly, a great deal of societal differentiation and complexity may develop, with a substantial gap between haves and have nots. The haves are typically part of the renter economy, or otherwise in a position to cream off the surpluses from the labor of lower social strata.

The degree of general freedom probably depends on the extent to which it is in the interests of the powerful. If it is more profitable for the elite to grant economic freedom, and then reap a large share of the proceeds, than to control society directly from the center, then freedom is far more likely. When circumstances change, however, that may no longer be the case. Relative freedom is associated with economic boom times, when there is an explosion of economic activity to feed off. When boom turns to bust, and there is little economic activity for a prolonged period, direct control of what if left is likely to be of greater appeal. As we stand on the verge of a very substantial economic contraction, this is a major concern. Freedom is addictive, and taking it away has consequences for the fabric of society.

ponzi strata ancient

In our own modern situation, the freedom enjoyed in first world countries is arguably both a direct and an indirect a result of the enormous energy surplus we have benefited from. Energy surplus has allowed us to substitute energy slaves directly for the forced labor that has been a prevalent feature of so many previous societies, and it has allowed us to intensify complexity in order to create many opportunities for innovation and advantage. It has also enabled an increase of scale to the global level, so that hard work for low pay, and unpleasant externalities, could be off-shored while retaining the benefits in the first world, albeit very unevenly distributed within it.

The size of the global energy surplus is likely to fall very substantially in the coming years. This will inevitably have a major impact on global socioeconomic dynamics, as it will undermine the ability to maintain both the scale and degree of complexity of the global economy. The expansion of effective organizational scale on the way up is a relatively smooth progression of intensification and developing complexity, but the same cannot be said for its contraction. As we scaled up we built structural dependencies on the range of affordable inputs available to us, on the physical infrastructure we built to exploit them, on the trading relationships formed through comparative advantage, and on the large scale institutional framework to manage it all. Scaling down will mean huge dislocation as these dependencies must give way. There is simply no smooth, managed way to achieve this.

A foundational ingredient in determining effective organizational scale is trust – the glue holding societies together. At small scale, trust is personal, and group acceptance is limited to those who are known well enough to be trusted. For societies to scale up, trust must transcend the personal and be grounded instead in an institutional framework governing interactions between individuals, between the people and different polities, between different layers of governance (municipal, provincial, regional, national), and between states on the international stage.

This institutional framework takes time to scale up and relies on public trust for its political legitimacy. That trust depends on the general perception that the function of the governing institutions serves the public good, and that the rules are sufficiently transparent and predictably applied to all. This is the definition of the rule of law. Of course the ideal does not exist, but better and worse approximations do at each scale in question.

Over time, the trust horizon has waxed and waned in tandem with large cycles of socioeconomic advance and retreat. Trust builds during expansionary times, conferring political legitimacy on larger scale forms of organization. Trust takes a long time to build, however, and much less time to destroy. The retreat of the trust horizon in contractionary times can be very rapid, and as trust is withdrawn from governing institutions, so is political legitimacy. This process is already underway, as a litany of abuses of public trust previously obscured by expansion is coming to light. Contraction will rapidly lift the veil from far more trust-destroying scandals than almost anyone anticipates.

ponzi strata  industrial

Even at the peak of expansion, international scale institutions struggled to achieve popular legitimacy, due to the obvious democratic deficit, lack of transparency, lack of accountability and insensitivity to local concerns. Even under the most favorable circumstances, true internationalism appears to be a bridge too far from a trust perspective. For this reason, world government and a global currency were never a realistic prospect, as much as some may have craved and others dreaded them. Even a transnational European single currency has suffered from a fatal disparity between the national level of primary loyalty and the international level of currency governance, and as such has no future.

As the circumstances supporting economic globalization and attempts at global governance evaporate, and the process goes into reverse, smaller and smaller scale governance structures are likely to join international institutions as stranded assets from a trust perspective – beyond the trust horizon – and lose legitimacy as a result. International structures are likely to fade away, or be torn apart by strife between disparate members who no longer see themselves are part of a larger whole. The socioeconomic impact of the latter process, for which Europe is the prime example, is likely to be enormous. For a time this may strengthen national institutions, but this is likely to be temporary as they too are subject to being undermined by the withdrawal of trust.

Where people no longer internalize and follow rules, because they no longer see those rules as in the general interest, existing national institutions would have to devote far more energy to surveillance and compliance enforcement. The difference in effort required is very significant, and that effort further alienates the governed population in a socially polarizing downward spiral of positive feedback. It also renders governance far less effective. The form of the institutional framework may still appear outwardly the same, but the function can be both undermined from below and overwhelmed from within by an obsession with enforcement until it ceases to be meaningful. This shift is already well underway.

 As contraction picks up momentum, the combination, on the one hand, of a desire to control remaining resources and the benefits from remaining economic activity, and on the other the loss of trust and compliance, and consequent movement towards enforcement, is likely to lead to far more authoritarian forms of government in many places. While central control can occasionally facilitate useful responses to crisis, such as rationing of scarce resources, the power is far more likely to be abused for the benefit of the few, as has so often been the case throughout history.

It is within this general context that society will have to function, although considerable path-dependent local variation can be expected. Trust has a very long way to withdraw, especially in places where some form of totalitarianism develops, as this malignant form of governance actively undermines trust among the populace for the purpose of maintaining control through fear. Even in luckier locations, trust is likely to contract enough to undermine the efficacy of any institution beyond municipal scale, and possibly smaller.

Contractions as large as the one ahead lead to a major trust bottleneck through which society must pass before any kind of recovery can begin to get traction, but the narrowness of that bottleneck will vary considerably between societies. Societies with well developed, close-knit communities are likely to find that far more trust survives, and that in turn will mitigate the impact of contraction and hasten the recovery that will involve rebuilding trust from the bottom up.

Given that trust is a major determinant of effective organizational scale, and that the trust horizon is set to contract substantially, the scale at which it makes most sense to work will be much smaller and more local than previously. The future will, eventually, be one of decentralization by necessity. The odds of making a positive impact at smaller scale will be substantially higher, particularly if the actions undertaken are predicated upon a simpler society rather than based on current complex systems. It makes sense to focus scarce resources – money, energy, materials, effort, emotional intensity – where they can achieve the most. An understanding of scale and its determinants is critical in this regard.

It is interesting to look at the role of money in relation to trust and societal scale. Very small and simple societies grounded in personal relationships can function on a gift basis, as the high level of trust in a small number of well-known others is enough to mean that keeping track of favors done for one another is not necessary. Favors may simply be performed when necessary and reciprocity taken for granted. Resources may be ‘owned’ by the group, or made generally available to the group, rather than owned privately and subject to specific exchange.

 Scaling up from this point requires interacting with people less well known, where there is less faith that favors done will be reciprocated, so that keeping track becomes necessary. Larger societies are more likely to be hierarchical, with resources privately owned. Exchange of goods or services would then require some form of relative value quantification. It could be decided that everyone’s time is of equivalent worth and therefore that, at the simplest level of value accounting, keeping track of hours contributed would be sufficient. Further scaling up would require greater sophistication in both time and resource accounting. Money is the value abstraction that evolves to perform this function, hence the development of a monetary economy is an emergent property of scale. The paradox of money is that even as it allows trust to scale up beyond the personal, its use is fundamentally a measure of distrust in reliable interpersonal reciprocity.

As scaling up continues, along with increasing socioeconomic differentiation, it becomes necessary to interact constantly with completely unknown individuals. For this to function, the necessary trust must vest in the institutional framework itself, in the abstract representation of value that becomes a store of value in its own right in addition to being a medium of exchange, and in the complex web of rules by which it operates in large scale societies. These rules grow progressively more complex with expanding societal scale and increasing complexity, as the nature of money itself becomes increasingly abstract and derivative.

Money in the form of precious metals was replaced by promissory notes based on precious metals, then promissory notes backed by faith alone, virtual representations of promissory notes, promises to repay promissory notes, or bets on the abstract price movements (denominated in promissory notes) of underlying assets, which could themselves by abstract. Trust in the value of these abstractions in turn gives them value, and each extension of monetary equivalence creates the foundation of confidence for the next step.

The initial physical monetary commodity would have been chosen to be relatively scarce and not creatable, facilitating central control over a limited money supply. However, when an expansionary dynamic is underway, and a larger money supply is called for in order to lubricate the engine of a growing economy, a rapidly expanding supply of increasingly abstract monetary equivalents may serve that need, at the cost of the loss of any semblance of control over the supply of what is accepted as constituting money. In other words, inflationary times are grounded in an exponentially exploding supply of human promises, backed by assets that are increasingly over-pledged as collateral even as their price is bid up by the expanding purchasing power granted by confidence in promises to repay. This is another self-reinforcing dynamic.

ponzi Deflationary SpiralOur history has experienced many credit-fuelled cycles of expansion, going back to antiquity. Positive feedback spirals continue, relatively smoothly, until they can no longer do so. A limit is reached, and there is typically a rapidly spreading realization that the pile of human promises is very heavily under-collateralized. The trust which had conferred value in abstract promises dissipates very quickly, taking the erstwhile value with it.  [At left, a negative feedback spiral.  Slowly developing scenario as expansion curves down from the current peak and monetary value dissipates. Mr Larry]

The credit which had gained monetary equivalence during the expansion is deprived of it, and the resulting abrupt contraction of the effective money supply becomes a major factor in a positive feedback loop in the deflationary direction – the collapse of the money supply removes the lubricant from the engine of the economy, the fall in purchasing power undermines asset prices and promises consequently become even less well collateralized, driving further contraction.

The last thirty years have seen the latest incarnation of a major expansion cycle, reaching unprecedented heights in terms of trust in the value of abstractions as the exponential growth of the shadow banking system has overwhelmed official monetary channels and control mechanisms. We are now on the verge of the implosion that will inevitably follow as trust evaporates and virtual value disappears. The contraction will proceed until the small amount of remaining credit/debt is acceptably collateralized to the few remaining creditors.

At that point we can begin to rebuild trust in a new monetary system, and by extension a new form of societal organization. It will likely be one with a strong emphasis on central monetary supply control, with little or no scope for the monetization of expansionary promises. The successive ‘financial innovations’ that built the bubble will be outlawed, as similar phenomena have been before in the aftermath of collapse. Unfortunately, the controls do not last, and a new generation will eventually make similar mistakes once the experience of boom and bust passes once again from living memory.

While there is nothing we can do to prevent the bubble from bursting, or the contraction of the trust horizon that will inevitably occur, we can attempt to cushion the blow and limit the extent of contraction. Understanding the critical role of trust, how to nurture it, how it determines effective organizational scale, and therefore what scale to operate at what time will allow us to maximize the effectiveness of our actions. In terms of rebuilding a monetary system, it will be necessary in many places to operate at a profoundly local level initially, with the reintroduction of the simplest forms of trust extension above a gift economy – keeping track of hours traded in a time banking process, and local currencies operating within the trust horizon. It will be necessary to build community interconnections actively in order to establish, maintain and increase the necessary trust.

If the process succeeds in halting and reversing the contraction of the trust horizon in places, then new monetary arrangements can be scaled up in those locations when necessary. There will be no need to do so rapidly, as the artificial demand stimulation of the bubble years will have disappeared, inevitably leaving much less economic activity during a period of economic depression, and therefore much less demand for a large money supply to lubricate the engine of the economy.

Governance arrangements operating at a scale in line with local monetary provision will be necessary, and can expect to be more effective than larger institutions substantially beyond the trust horizon. The latter, where they still exist and can exercise power at a distance, are most likely to make it more difficult for society to be able to function rather than less, as they can be expected to resist the decentralization that could allow localities to establish resilience.

Operating at a local scale to build local supply chains and resilience is far more compatible with the human psyche. At times when social organization has expanded to the point where it dwarfs individual actions, and may control them either directly or indirectly, individuals are disempowered by scale. Many feel they have no control over the critical factors of their own lives, which often leads to psychological disturbances such as depression, at present widely addressed with medication. Increasing scale can reduce both empowerment and civic engagement, as it fosters the perception that one can achieve nothing through individual action.

The increasing complexity that accompanies scaling up also occupies time, money and individual energies, leaving little in the way of personal resources to contribute to the public sphere. Of course for the few in positions of control, scale translates into leveraging power, which can effectively become a drug in its own right, but for the masses it is much less conducive to functioning effectively and meaningfully. For a while the masses can be bought off with bread and circuses, and, for some, with aspirations to achieving a position of power and leverage themselves.

ponzi me

This only works while it remains possible to supply sufficient bread and circuses, and while people still believe that higher aspirations may be realistic. Expansions do shake up established orders enough to open doors for a few to exploit the new niches that open up with increasing complexity, but in the latter stages of expansion, the social strata typically reform and solidify again, so that upward mobility becomes harder or impossible. The combination creates a dangerous situation, where financial implosion and social explosion can happen in a simultaneous dislocation.

The shift to operating at a local scale, over the longer term at least (once the dust has settled), can be expected to improve the balance between individuals and society, albeit at the cost of living in a much simpler, lower energy and less resource intensive manner. The implications of this shift are huge. Almost every aspect of our lives will change profoundly. We can expect the transition to be traumatic, as the dislocation of major contractions has always been. What large scale and extreme complexity have given us only appear to be normal, as they have persisted for much or all of our lifetimes. In fact we stand at the peak of an unprecedentedly abnormal period in human history – the largest in a long series of financial bubbles, thanks to the hydrocarbons that allowed it to develop over decades.

Things look good at the peak of a bubble, as if we could extrapolate past trends forward indefinitely and reach even higher heights. However, the trend is changing as the enabling circumstances are crumbling, and the bubble is already bursting as a result. Our task now is to navigate a changing reality. We cannot change the waves of expansion and contraction, as their scale is beyond human control, but we can learn to surf.”

 

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Update: Volcanic activity and discoveries

(News & Editorial/Update: Volcanic activity and discoveries)

volcanic eruption

A.  Volcanoes
Wunderground, Excerpt pasted from: http://www.wunderground.com/climate/volcanoes.asp

“The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes.” As this ‘Michael the Syrian’ quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day.

‘Procopius of Caesarea’ remarked: “During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.”

Many documents from 535 – 536 A.D.–the time of King Arthur in Britain–speak of the terrible “dry fog” or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a “Volcanic Winter” resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 – 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)–a “super colossal” eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century–the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).
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B.  Alaska Volcano Observatory is Having Busiest Volcano Year to Date
17 June 2014, KDLG.org, (Public radio for Alaska’s bristol Bay), By Luke Brummer
Pasted from: http://kdlg.org/post/alaska-volcano-observatory-having-busiest-volcano-year-date

Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory are paying extra close attention lately due to high seismic activity at five volcanoes running all along the Aleutian Chain. Many of the volcanoes have recently sprung back to life, and others have just continued their normal eruptions. John Power is the Scientist-in-charge at AVO. He says a few recent explosions and heightened unrest have led to the busiest time since the inception of the state’s observatory.

It is the busiest time that we have had in terms of Alaska Volcanoes. As long has AVO has been around in 27 years. We do have five that are at alert levels or color codes.

Vol Aleutian chain

A screen capture of active Alaska Volcanoes as of June 17, 2014.

Power says the most active volcano recently has been Pavlof, which has erupted continuously since the May 31st. He says it has had some explosive activity and lava flows along the Northwest side. It currently has a “watch” Alert Level and an “orange” Aviation Color Code. The Shishaldin Vocano is the other volcano with a “watch” Alert Level, and “orange” Aviation Color Code. Power says the volcano has experienced continuing low level eruptive activity, and its conditions form its recognizable outward appearance.

Shishaldin is one of the ones that you would say looks like a volcano. There’s a big summit crater, and we’re having magma, low level magma, extrusions have been observed down inside the summit crater. It’s been a very effusive eruption, we would call it. It hasn’t put out big ash cloud or had explosions. It’s just been lava oozing out in the inside of this crater if you will.

Power says the Cleveland Volcano has clearly been the most active volcano over the last ten years. On June 5th, AVO picked up two explosions from seismic monitoring stations and infrasonic data. Power says the observatory primarily monitors the volcano via satellite data because of its remote location, but from what they can tell conditions have stayed the same. The Semisopochnoi Volcano is the most remote of the 5 active volcanos. It’s more than 1,000 miles west of the Pavlof Volcano near the island of Amchitka. Powers says the volcano has not had any eruptions or warm ground, but AVO raised its Aviation Color Code to “yellow” due to a sequence of elevated earthquake activity. The Veniaminof Volcano is also showing volcanic activity. It’s located in the Alaska Peninsula National Wildlife Refuge. Power says it had a sizeable eruption last summer and seismic activity has continued throughout the year causing AVO to continue monitoring conditions at the volcano.

Every time we look at it and we think it’s time to cancel these advisories it does a little bit more, and we’re continuing to watch it just as closely as we can.
You can follow the activity at all of Alaska’s active volcanos on the website of the Alaska Volcano Observatory.
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C. Risk of supervolcano eruption big enough to ‘affect the world’ far greater than thought, scientists say
27 June 2014, The Independent, by __
Pasted from: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/risk-of-supervolcano-eruption-big-enough-to-affect-the-world-far-greater-than-thought-say-scientists-9040073.html

The eruption of a “supervolcano” hundreds of times more powerful than conventional volcanoes – with the potential to wipe out civilisation as we know it – is more likely than previously thought, a study has found.

An analysis of the molten rock within the dormant supervolcano beneath Yellowstone National Park in the United States has revealed that an eruption is possible without any external trigger, scientists said.

Scientists previously believed many supervolcanic eruptions needed earthquakes to break open the Earth’s crust so magma could escape. But new research suggests that this can happen as a result of the build-up of pressure.

Supervolcanoes represent the second most globally cataclysmic event – next to an asteroid strike – and they have been responsible in the past for mass extinctions, long-term changes to the climate and shorter-term “volcanic winters” caused  by volcanic ash cutting out the sunlight.

The last known supervolcanic eruption was believed to have occurred about 70,000 years ago at the site today of Lake Toba in Sumatra, Indonesia. It caused a volcanic winter that blocked out the sun for between six to eight years, and resulted in a period of global cooling lasting a thousand years.

A supervolcano under Yellowstone Park in Wyoming last erupted about 600,000 years ago, sending more than 1,000 cubic kilometres of ash and lava into the atmosphere – about 100 times more than the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1982, which caused a noticeable period of global cooling.

Following Pinatubo’s eruption, the global average temperature fell by about 0.4C for several months. Scientists predict that a supervolcanic eruption would cause average global temperatures to fall by about 10C for a decade – changing life on earth.

Scientists have analysed magma from the Yellowstone caldera, a 55-mile-wide underground cavern containing between 200 and 600 cubic kilometres of molten rock, to see how it responds to changes in pressure and temperature.

Using a powerful X-ray source at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility in Grenoble, France, the researchers found that the density of the magma decreased significantly at the high temperatures and pressures experienced underground.

Density variations between magma and the rock surrounding it means that the lava within the supervolcano’s caldera can produce big enough forces to break through the earth’s crust, allowing the molten rock and ash to erupt from the surface, the scientists said.

“The difference in density between the molten magma in the caldera and the surrounding rock is big enough to drive the magma from the chamber to the surface,” said Jean-Philippe Perrillat of the National Centre for Scientific Research in Grenoble.

“The effect is like the extra buoyancy of a football when it is filled with air underwater, which forces it to the surface because of the denser water around it,” Dr Perrillat said.

“If the volume of magma is big enough, it should come to the surface and explode like a champagne bottle being uncorked.”

The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, was possible because the X-ray machine at Grenoble was able to take accurate density measurements at temperatures of up to 1,700C and pressures 36,000 times greater than normal atmospheric pressure.

“The results reveal that if the magma chamber is big enough, the overpressure caused by differences in density alone are sufficient to penetrate the crust above and initiate an eruption,” said Professor Carmen Sanchez-Valle of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich, who led the study.

Preventing a supervolcanic eruption is not possible, but scientists are currently trying to devise methods of monitoring the pressure of underground magma in order to predict whether one is imminent.

Dr Perrillat said there are no known supervolcanoes that are in danger of erupting in the foreseeable future, and it would take at least a decade or so for the magma pressure within a caldera to build up to a point where an eruption is likely.
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D.  Newly-discovered active volcano could erupt underneath ice in Antarctica and add to effects of global warming
12 May 2014, The Extinct Protocol, by  Lucy Crossley of DailMail-MailOnline, UK
Pasted from: http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/newly-discovered-active-volcano-could-erupt-underneath-ice-in-antarctica-and-add-to-effects-of-global-warming/

Vol antarctica

May 2014ANTARCTICA – Antarctic ice sheet is being threatened by an undersea volcano. Antarctica’s ice sheets may face a far more imminent threat than climate change: scientists have found a new volcano forming a mile under the ice, which is threatening a full eruption. The volcano appears to be a part of much larger system that is generating earthquakes and releasing heat into the ice above. Volcanic activity was discovered around 30 miles from Antarctica’s highest volcano, Mount Sidley, and although an eruption would be unlikely to breach the ice – the accompanying heat could have an effect on the landscape. Even a sub-glacial eruption would still be able to melt ice, creating huge amounts of water which could flow beneath the ice and towards the sea – hastening the flow of the overlying ice and potentially speed up the rate of ice sheet loss. “Numerous volcanoes exist in Marie Byrd Land, a highland region of West Antarctica,” said Amanda Lough, of Washington University in St Louis in the team’s paper on the subject, published in the Nature Geoscience journal.

“High heat flow through the crust in this region may influence the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” The Antarctic ice sheet is one of the Earth’s two polar ice caps and covers an area of 5.4 million square miles – around 98 percent of the continent, making it the largest single mass of ice on earth. Although scientists have suggested that sea ice around the continent is increasing, land ice appears to be decreasing and the area is very sensitive to global warming.  Seismologists had set up two crossing lines of seismographs across Marie Byrd Land in 2010 – the first time such instruments able to withstand the cold temperatures year-round had been used. –Daily Mail

vol ring of fire

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Update: Reverse engineered Spanish flu; Ebola “out of control”

(News & Editorial/Update: US has reverse engineered Spanish influenza; Ebola “out of control”)

A.  A Flu Virus That Killed Millions in 1918 Has Now Been Recreated
13 June  2014, Vice News, by Olivia Becker
Excerpt pasted from; https://news.vice.com/article/a-flu-virus-that-killed-millions-in-1918-has-now-been-recreated

Scientists have recreated a nearly exact replicate of the deadly flu virus that killed an estimated 50 million in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. But don’t worry, they say it’s totally safe.

 Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison reverse engineered an influenza virus from a similar one found in birds, combining several strains to create one that is nearly identical to the one that caused the 1918 outbreak. They then mutated the genes to make it airborne, and to study how it spreads between animals.

“Our research indicates the risks inherent in circulating avian influenza viruses,” Yoshihiro Kawaoka, the scientist who led the research team, told VICE News. “Continued surveillance of avian influenza viruses — and not only viruses that we know pose risks for humans, such as H5N1 and H7N9 influenza viruses, and attention to pandemic preparedness measures is important.”

According to the statement summarizing the project published this week, the “analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future.”

In other words, a common avian flu virus that has been circulating in wild ducks is pretty much the exact same one that infected humans a century ago. And now is in a lab.

But many scientists disagree and have condemned research that recreates virus’ such this, stating that if released accidentally, a virus could spread to humans and cause a pandemic.

Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard, has criticized research such as Kawaoka’s as unnecessarily risky.

“There is a quantifiable possibility that these novel pathogens could be accidentally or deliberately released. Exacerbating the immunological vulnerability of human populations to PPPs is the potential for rapid global dissemination via ever-increasing human mobility,” Lipsitch said in a paper about experiments with transmissible virus’. “The dangers are not just hypothetical.”

Lipsitch points out that many of the H1N1 flu outbreaks that have occurred between 1977 and 2009 were a result of a lab accident.

Kawaoka disagrees, saying, “We maintain that it is better to know as much as possible about the risk posed by these viruses so we may be able to identify the risk when viruses with pandemic potential emerge, and have effective countermeasures on-hand or ready for development.”

B.  Outbreak of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Pasted from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/guinea/

[Tracing the outbreak back  2-1/2 months to it roots-lfp]
June 5, 2014 Outbreak Update

  • As of June 3, 2014, Guinea’s Ministry of Health was reporting 344 cumulative cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF), including 215 deaths and 207 laboratory confirmed cases. Cases are currently being reported from the Conakry, Télimélé, Boffa, Boke, and Dubreka districts in the west, and the Guéckédou and Macenta districts in the south (see map below).
  • The Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone reported on June 5, 2014 that 81 suspect cases are under investigation, 31 cases have been laboratory confirmed, and 7 deaths have been reported. Suspect cases are now being reported from eight districts including Kailahun, Kenema, Koinadugu, Bo, Moyamba, Bombali, Western area urban, and Port Loko. Laboratory testing is being conducted in Kenema. Sierra Leone and WHO has sent experts to aid in the response and investigation. 

ebola map

May 28, 2014, Outbreak Update

  • The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on May 27, 2014, 14 new suspect cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) and 5 deaths occurring in western Guinea from May 23-27. For the first time, cases are being reported from Boffa, Boke, and Dubreka counties. Additional cases are still being reported in Télimélé, Guékédou, Macenta, and Conakry. The cumulative total of EHF cases as reported by Guinea’s Minisitry of Health, stands at 281 (163 laboratory confirmed) with 186 deaths.
  • In Sierra Leone, WHO states that 7 EHF cases have been laboratory confirmed with an additional 9 suspect cases and 5 community deaths under investigation. All suspect cases are reported to be from the Kailahun district of Sierra Leone which neighbors the current EHF hotspot in Guekedou, Guinea. Laboratory testing was conducted in Kenema, Sierra Leone and WHO has sent experts to aid in the response and investigation.
  • No cases have been reported in Liberia since April 9, 2014.

April 30, 2014, Outbreak Update

  • On April 29, 2014, the Ministry of Health (MoH) of Guinea’s reported 221 suspect and confirmed cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF), including 146 deaths. Of these suspect cases, 126 have been laboratory confirmed positive cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF). The number of health care workers reported among the suspect and confirmed cases remains at 25, including 16 deaths. Other districts reporting suspect and confirmed cases remain Guekedou, Macenta, Kissidougou, Dabola, and Djingaraye.
  • The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) of Liberia, together with CDC and WHO, reviewed suspect and confirmed EHF case definitions for Liberia. As of April 30, 2014, the newly revised number of suspect and confirmed cases of EHF in Liberia is 13. Six (6) samples have tested positive for Ebola virus. Samples from Mali and Sierra Leone have, thus far, been negative for Ebola virus though investigations and monitoring of reports of suspect cases is ongoing.

April 17, 2014, Outbreak Update

  • On April 16, 2014, the Ministry of Health of Guinea reported 197 probable and suspect cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF), including 122 deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Of these suspect cases, 101 have been laboratory confirmed positive cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF). 24 health care workers have been reported among the suspect and confirmed cases, including 13 deaths. Other districts reporting suspect and confirmed cases remain Guekedou, Macenta, Kissidougou, Dabola, and Djingaraye.
  • According to WHO and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) of Liberia, the cumulative total of probable and suspect cases of EHF is 27, with 13 deaths as of April 16, 2014. Samples from Mali and Sierra Leone have, thus far, been negative for Ebola virus though investigations and monitoring on reports of suspect cases is ongoing.
  • MSF/Doctors without Borders is helping the Ministry of Health of Guinea in establishing Ebola treatment centers in the epicenter of the outbreak. In Liberia, several international organizations including the International Red Cross (IRC), Pentecostal Mission Unlimited (PMU)-Liberia, and Samaritan’s Purse (SP) Liberia are aiding the MOHSW of Liberia by supporting awareness campaigns and providing personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers. The Institute Pasteur in Lyon, France, the Institut Pasteur in Dakar, Senegal, the European Consortium mobile laboratory, and the Metabiota/Tulane University laboratory in Kenema, Sierra Leone, and CDC Atlanta are some of the laboratories collaborating to test samples. CDC is in regular communication with its international partners, WHO, and MSF regarding the outbreak. Currently CDC has and a 6 person team in Guinea and a 3 person team in Liberia assisting the respective MOHs and the WHO-led international response to this Ebola outbreak.

April 2, 2014, Outbreak Update

  • According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the Ministry of Health (MoH) of Guinea reported an increased total of 127 probable and suspect cases, including 83 deaths (case fatality ratio: 65%), as of April 1, 2014. Of these suspect cases, 35 have been laboratory confirmed positive cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF), including 14 health care workers and 11 cases in Conakry, the capitol. Liberia has reported 8 suspect cases, which include 5 deaths and 2 laboratory-confirmed cases of EHF from persons with recent travel history to Guinea. Additional reports of suspect cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone are under investigation.
  • Doctors without Borders) is helping the Ministry of Health of Guinea in establishing Ebola treatment centers in the epicenter of the outbreak. In Liberia, several international organizations including the International Red Cross (IRC), Pentecostal Mission Unlimited (PMU)-Liberia, and Samaritan’s Purse (SP) Liberia are aiding the Ministry of Health of Liberia by supporting awareness campaigns and providing personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers. The Institut Pasteur in Lyon, France, and the Institut Pasteur in Dakar, Senegal are a few of the laboratories collaborating to test samples. To date, 37 cases from Guinea and Liberia have been laboratory confirmed by PCR for Ebola virus. CDC is in regular communication with its international partners WHO and MSF regarding the outbreak, and has sent a 5 person team to Guinea to assist Guinea MOH and WHO led international response to the Ebola outbreak.

March 25, 2014, Initial Announcement

  • According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the Ministry of Health (MoH) of Guinea has reported an outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in four southeastern districts: Guekedou, Macenta, Nzerekore and Kissidougou. Reports of suspected cases in the neighboring countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone are being investigated. In Guinea, a total of 86 suspected cases, including 59 deaths (case fatality ratio: 68.5%), had been reported as of March 24, 2014. Preliminary results from the Pasteur Institute in Lyon, France suggest Zaire ebolavirus as the causative agent. Médecins sans Frontières (MSF/Doctors without Borders) is helping the Ministry of Health of Guinea in establishing Ebola treatment centers in the epicenter of the outbreak. CDC is in regular communication with its international partners WHO and MSF regarding the outbreak, to identify areas where CDC subject matter experts can contribute to the response.

C. Doctors Without Borders: Ebola ‘out of control’
20 June 2014, Associated Press, by SARAH DiLORENZO
Pasted from: http://www.boston.com/health/2014/06/20/ebola-out-control-doctors-without-borders/gxjq53wYl4CVS9QFh73ALI/story.html

ebola dr wo borders

[FILE - In this file photo provide by Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders), taken on Friday, March 28, 2014, healthcare workers from the organization, prepare isolation and treatment areas for their Ebola, hemorrhagic fever operations, in Gueckedou, Guinea. One preacher advocated fasting and prayer to spare people from a virus that usually leads to a horrible death. Some people pray that the Ebola virus stays confined to a rural district. Others are unruffled and say the outbreak will blow over. AP Photo/Kjell Gunnar Beraas, MSF, File]

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — The Ebola outbreak ravaging West Africa is ‘‘totally out of control,’’ according to a senior official for Doctors Without Borders, who says the medical group is stretched to the limit in responding.

The outbreak has caused more deaths than any other of the disease, said another official with the medical charity. Ebola has been linked to more than 330 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, according to the World Health

International organizations and the governments involved need to send in more health experts and increase public education messages about how to stop the spread of the disease, Bart Janssens, the director of operations for the medical group in Brussels, told The Associated Press on Friday.

‘‘The reality is clear that the epidemic is now in a second wave,’’ Janssens said. ‘‘And, for me, it is totally out of control.’’

The Ebola virus, which causes internal bleeding and organ failure, spreads through direct contact with infected people. There is no cure or vaccine, so containing an outbreak focuses on supportive care for the ill and isolating them to limit the spread of the virus.

The current outbreak, which began in Guinea either late last year or early this year, had appeared to slow before picking up pace again in recent weeks, including spreading to the Liberian capital for the first time.

‘‘This is the highest outbreak on record and has the highest number of deaths, so this is unprecedented so far,’’ said Armand Sprecher, a public health specialist with Doctors Without Borders.

According to the WHO, the highest previous death toll was in the first recorded Ebola outbreak in Congo in 1976, when 280 deaths were reported. Because Ebola often touches remote areas and the first cases sometimes go unrecognized, it is likely that there are deaths that go uncounted during outbreaks.

The multiple locations of the current outbreak and its movement across borders make it one of the ‘‘most challenging Ebola outbreaks ever,’’ Fadela Chaib, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said earlier in the week.

But Janssens’ description of the Ebola outbreak was even more alarming, and he warned that the countries involved had not recognized the gravity of the situation. He criticized WHO for not doing enough to prod local leaders; the U.N. health agency did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

‘‘There needs to be a real political commitment that this is a very big emergency,’’ he said. ‘‘Otherwise, it will continue to spread, and for sure it will spread to more countries.’’

But Tolbert Nyenswah, Liberia’s deputy minister of health, said the highest levels of government are working to contain the outbreak, noting that Liberia had a long period with no new cases before this second wave.

Governments and international agencies are definitely struggling to keep up with the outbreak, said Unni Krishnan of Plan International, which is providing equipment to the three countries. But he noted that the disease is striking in one of the world’s poorest regions, where public health systems are already fragile.

With more than 40 international staff currently on the ground and four treatment centers, Doctors Without Borders has reached its limit to respond, Janssens said. It is unclear, for instance, if the group will be able to set up a treatment center in Liberia, like the ones it is running in in Guinea and Sierra Leone, he said.

Janssens said the only way to stop the disease’s spread is to persuade people to come forward when symptoms occur and to avoid touching the sick and dead.

He said this outbreak is particularly challenging because it began in an area where people are very mobile and has spread to even more densely populated areas, like the capitals of Guinea and Liberia. The disease typically strikes sparsely populated areas in central or eastern Africa, where it spreads less easily, he said.

By contrast, the epicenter of this outbreak is near a major regional transport hub, the Guinean city of Gueckedou.

 D.  What Happens to Your Body When You Get Ebola?
18 June 2014, By Derek Gatherer, Lancaster University
Pased from: http://www.livescience.com/46379-what-happens-to-your-body-when-you-get-ebola.html

This article was originally published at The Conversation. The publication contributed the article to Live Science’s Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.

ebolaThis morning you woke up feeling a little unwell. You have no appetite, your head is aching, your throat is sore and you think you might be slightly feverish. You don’t know it yet, but Ebola virus has started to attack your immune system, wiping out the T-lymphocyte cells that are crucial to its proper function.

These are the same cells that the AIDS virus (HIV-1) attacks, but Ebola virus kills them far more aggressively. Exactly when and where you caught Ebola virus is unclear, it can take anything between two and 21 days from initial infection to the first symptoms. What is more certain is that you are now infectious yourself. Your family, friends and anyone in close contact with you are all in mortal danger.

The next week or so will determine if you are one of the lucky minority who survive. In the 24 Ebola virus outbreaks prior to the present one, a cumulative total of 1,590 people, two-thirds of all cases, have died.

The current outbreak, which began in the village of Meliandou in eastern Guinea in early December 2013, and which has now spread across Guinea and into the neighbouring countries of Sierra Leone and Liberia, has killed 251 people as of June 5, nearly half of the identified cases.

The west African Ebola epidemic is now the largest outbreak seen since Ebola virus was discovered in 1976. The World Health Organisation issued its first communiqué on the situation on March 23, and since then has been producing regular reports.

Over the next few days your condition deteriorates. Your body aches all over, you have chronic abdominal pain, the fever intensifies and you start to vomit and develop diarrhoea. After anything between a couple of days and a week of misery, you will have reached the crisis point – now the symptoms will either gradually recede or you will progress to the horrors of “cytokine storm”, a convulsion of your ravaged immune system that will plunge you into the terminal phase of Ebola virus disease known as haemorrhagic fever.

Cytokine storm releases a torrent of inflammatory molecules into your circulatory system. Your own immune system, now completely out of control, attacks every organ in your body. Tiny blood vessels burst everywhere and you begin slowly to bleed to death. The whites of your eyes turn red, your vomit and diarrhoea are now charged with blood and large blood blisters develop under your skin. You are now at the peak of infectiousness as Ebola virus particles, ready to find their next victim, pour out of your body along with your blood.

Fortunately, however, it seems you have survived. Rehydration therapy kept you strong in the initial phase and pure luck saved you from haemorrhagic fever. Understanding why some Ebola virus patients avoid the terminal phase is an active area of research, and one possible answer is that those whose T-lymphocytes survive the initial attack of the virus possibly retain sufficiently intact immune systems. Even when you are merely in the first phase of feeling vaguely unwell, it may be possible to determine if you will live or die.

Even though you are feeling much improved, and perhaps even ready to return to work, you will remain infectious for a while. All your bodily fluids will still contain virus. In particular, the virus can be sexually transmitted, especially if you are a man, up to 40 days after recovery.

Epidemiological modelling studies have shown that Ebola virus is about as infectious as influenza or very slightly more so – each infected person will probably infect two to four others. That’s not tremendously infectious compared to some of the super-infectious viruses such as measles or polio, which have corresponding numbers of five to 18, but it is nevertheless enough to sustain a pandemic. The question of why we haven’t seen a worldwide pandemic of Ebola in pre-modern times therefore becomes rather perplexing.

Where did it come from?
A briefly popular theory of a few years ago, that the Black Death of the 14th century was caused by Ebola virus, and that the famous mediaeval descriptions of buboes were actually haemorrhagic fever blood blisters, has now been convincingly excluded by DNA analyses that have proved beyond doubt that the Black Death was, after all, bubonic plague as originally thought.

Ebola may well be a purely modern disease and, since Ebola virus made its first known appearance in 1976, a whole generation of African medical workers have been drilled to be alert to the symptoms of haemorrhagic fever. Consequently, the World Health Organisation and its partners have been able to suffocate outbreaks before they spread more generally. However, the latest outbreak is proving rather more recalcitrant than expected and the story is not yet over.

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Update: The US Economy

(News & Editorial/ Update: US Economy)

 comentator2A.  The US Government Has Nearly As Much Debt As The World Has Wealth
11 Jun 2014, Gold-Eagle.com,   by Jeff Berwick contributing editor
Pasted from: http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/us-government-has-nearly-much-debt-world-has-wealth

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, privately held wealth increased to $152 trillion globally in 2013. 

Compare this to estimates putting the US federal government’s total debts and liabilities alone at anywhere from $78 trillion to $200 trillion and you can see just how untenable the US government’s debt is. The US government is nearly indebted to the equivalent of all the privately held wealth in the world and possibly more! 

Remember that the next time someone says, “The US is the richest country on Earth”.  It is much more accurate to state that the US is the most bankrupt and indebted country in the history of the world.

 Tallying Up The Total
We are dealing with massive, incalculable numbers here, of course.  Certainly it is impossible to calculate the value of all wealth in the world but the Boston Consulting Group’s number of $152 trillion is reasonable.  Zero Hedge calculated the total amount of global wealth at $223 trillion.

USecon1.
What should be much easier is calculating the total debt and liabilities of the US government… but even this is mostly a guessing game.  Even the US government’s own Government (Un)Accountability Office (GAO) which is slated with the task of trying to find out where all the money in the government is going has said that it is impossible to fully audit the government.

 “The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) cannot render an opinion on the 2012 consolidated financial statements of the federal government because of widespread material internal control weaknesses, significant uncertainties, and other limitations,” the agency said. “As was the case in 2011, the main obstacles to a GAO opinion on the accrual-based consolidated financial statements were: Serious financial management problems at the Department of Defense (DOD) that made its financial statements unauditable. The federal government’s inability to adequately account for and reconcile intragovernmental activity and balances between federal agencies. The federal government’s ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial statements.”

However there have been some estimates of the total debt and liabilities of the US government.  Former US Comptroller General David M Walker argues total US government debt is $73 trillion. Some consider it to be higher: The Washington Post asked if the US has $128 trillion in unfunded liabilities. That means the US government is nearly as indebted as the world is wealthy, if not more.

This means that all the wealth in the world – every stock, bond, bar of gold, piece of real estate – couldn’t even pay off the US debt and liabilities at this point.
Actual debt owed via Treasury bonds currently stands over $17 trillion and as can be seen in the following chart has gone fully parabolic.

USecon2

That total doesn’t take into account the liabilities of the federal government.  These are funds that have been extorted in the past for programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Socialist Insecurity that are theoretically supposed to be paid back.  If accounted for under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), like every other company in the US does, total US government debt and liabilities stands above $90 trillion and is rising at about $5 trillion per year.

USecon3

The Only Thing Keeping This Game Going
This is a truly record-breaking amount of debt for an empire.  Compare this to the Soviet Union which, in comparison, barely had any debt at all… mostly because no sane person would lend a communist government money.  The total amount of debt of the Soviet Union upon its collapse was $45 billion and was quickly paid off once Russia had become more capitalist and actually created wealth in 2006.  $45 billion is equivalent to what the US government goes into debt every 15 days currently!

The only thing keeping this system alive is the never-ending printing of money of the Federal Reserve and the continued acceptance of dollars by foreigners in the form of Treasury bonds.
In March of this year, Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve on the behalf of foreigners recorded the biggest drop in history.
Usecon4

In other words, this game is coming to an end.  And all the wealth in the world couldn’t even pay off the debt and liabilities of the US government at this point.

Yet, the great majority of people are not even aware of the possibility of The End Of The Monetary System As We Know It (TEOTMSAWKI) much less prepared for it.  Stay tuned at The Dollar Vigilante for info, news and analysis on how to survive and prosper during and after the collapse of the US dollar.


B. 19 Reasons Why You Can Laugh When Anyone Tells You That The Economy Is In Good Shape
10 June 2014, End Of  The American Dream.com, By Michael Snyder
Pasted from: http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/19-reasons-why-you-can-laugh-when-anyone-tells-you-that-the-economy-is-in-good-shape

USecon smilesHave you heard the one about the “economic recovery” in the United States?  It’s quite funny, but it is not actually true.  Every day, the establishment media points to the fact that global stock markets have soared to unprecedented heights as evidence that the economy is improving.  But just because a bunch of wealthy people have gotten temporarily even richer on paper does not mean that the real economy is in good shape.  In fact, as you will see below, things just continue to get even tougher for the poor and the middle class.  Retail stores are closing at the fastest pace since the fall of Lehman Brothers, the rate of homeownership in this country is the lowest that it has been in 19 years, one out of every five families do not have a single member that is employed, and one out of every five children is living in poverty.  We are working harder, earning less and going into more debt.  With each passing day, the middle class gets a little bit smaller and the ranks of the poor get a little bit larger.  But at least the stock market is doing great, eh?

If the U.S. economy really was doing well, government dependence would not be at epidemic levels.

If the U.S. economy really was doing well, we wouldn’t have more than a million public school children that are homeless.

 If the U.S. economy really was doing well, the percentage of Americans that have a job would not be lower than it was when the last recession supposedly “ended”.

Nobody that takes an honest look at the numbers can honestly say that the U.S. economy has recovered.  The following are 19 reasons why you can laugh when anyone tells you that the economy is in good shape…

#1 RadioShack just announced that it is going to close an additional 200 stores on top of what it was already planning to close.

#2 During the first quarter of this year, reported earnings by major U.S. retailers missed estimates by the largest margin in 13 years.

#3 One out of every three grocery store workers in the state of California is on some form of public assistance.

#4 The percentage of Americans that believe that it is a “good time to buy a home” is the lowest that it has been in four years.

#5 According to one recent survey, 52 percent of Americans cannot even afford the house that they are living in right now.

#6 Sadly, only 36 percent of American adults under the age of 35 currently own a home.  That is the lowest level that has ever been recorded.

#7 According to one new study, half of all college graduates are still relying on their parents financially when they are two years out of school.

#8 The number of planned job cuts by U.S. employers is on the rise again…
Job cuts climbed to the highest level in more than a year, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 52,961 in May, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

#9 Right now, one out of every six men in their prime working years (25 to 54) do not have a job.

#10 The percentage of Americans not in the labor force is still at a 36 year high.

#11 53 percent of wage earners in the United States make less than $30,000 a year.

#12 The average age of vehicles on America’s roads has hit an all-time high of 11.4 years.  Are we making them better or is it just that people simply cannot afford to buy new vehicles anymore?

#13 According to Pulitzer prize-winning reporter David Cay Johnston, the economic recovery following the depths of the Great Depression was far superior to what we are experiencing today…
The most eye-opening measure of how poorly the vast majority are faring these days comes from comparing the periods after the Great Recession and the Great Depression.
The 90 percent, the vast majority, saw their income decline in 2012 compared with 2009, the year the Great Recession officially ended. Average annual income was down $556, or almost 2 percent, adjusted for inflation, to $30,997.
But in 1936, three years after the Great Depression ended, the vast majority enjoyed 31 percent more income than in 1933. The average increase, in today’s dollars, was $2,146 per household.

 #14 The U.S. economy did not experience any economic growth during the first quarter of 2014.  In fact, it actually contracted.

#15 The growth of furniture spending has just gone negative for the first time in about two years.

#16 More than 20 percent of all children in the U.S. are living in poverty, and 49 million Americans are dealing with food insecurity.

#17 As I have written about previously, approximately 20 percent of all American families do not have a single member that is employed at this point.

#18 According to a recent Gallup survey, “Unemployment/Jobs” represents the number one concern for U.S. voters.

#19 After adjusting for inflation, median household income in the U.S. is now about 7 percent lower than it was in the year 2000.

[You haven't seen anything yet, wait until the second half of this "recession" sets in.
Watch for the next major decline in the stock market; watch for an internal political and international blame game to commence; watch for a war - perhaps one that brings missiles to American soil or near space... watch out below.
On June 18th, the following headline appeared in the news, "Pope Francis warns global economy close to collapse."  Has the Pope stooped to becoming a fear monger and a prepper,  or has the global public been missing the message? The warnings are rising fast now, perhaps just not in US main stream media, never- the- less, the "Good times are here again " end game lies just over the horizon and is approaching. Mr. Larry]

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