(News & Editorial/ Predictions for 2013)
The first breath of 2013 is a sigh of relief. Finally, a year when nobody predicts the apocalypse!
A. Predictions from various sources
The excerpts listed below have been take from the following websites (read the articles for the authors/experts complete view):
• The bulk of the fiscal cliff issues will be pushed into 2013. This sets up a showdown in March when the debt limit can no longer be extended. Americans will be exhausted by this process. The poll ratings for the Senate, House and Obama will fall to record lows. The commentary from every segment of society will be against the ineffective government the country has. The ratings agencies will chime in with more warnings that the US credit ratings are at risk. Foreign leaders will speak openly that the USA is losing its position of leadership. The foreign and domestic press will have a field day…
• Unemployment in Spain will push 30%. Youth unemployment will rise to over 50%. By the end of 2013 serious questions will be raised as to why Spain is tearing itself apart, and would the country be better off out of the Euro. The conclusion, by many Spaniards, will be that it would be better off leaving versus staying. This would represent a big change in thinking, and set up 2014 as the year of the Euro breakup…
• Barge traffic on the Northern Mississippi will be restricted due to low water in February. The drop in traffic will result in higher prices, and spot shortages of raw materials/energy in the upper mid-west. Later in the year agricultural commodity prices will be impacted by higher cost of transportation. The “trains” will be the beneficiary of this…
• There will be no meaningful gun legislation in the US during 2013. But the threat of new restrictions will keep gun store shelves empty. Gun violence in America will, of course, continue… Brazil’s inflation rate will push 10%. The country will blame the USA and the Fed’s cheap money policies. > Argentina will default on some of its external debt… North Korea will fire more rockets over Japan. Iran will have military exercises around the Straits of Hormuz. The US will spend tens of billions on naval costs in the Straits…
• There will be no tax reform, because members of Congress will look at the biggest breaks in the tax code and realize that they don’t actually want to get rid of any of them. There will also be no corporate-tax reform, because small business and big business don’t see eye to eye on it. There will be another debt-limit fight, which will cause another credit downgrade that will again have no detectible influence on the markets in labor, stocks or credit.
• International Happiness Day: The United Nations has declared March 20 to be a day of worldwide happiness. This is not to be confused with World Smile Day (Oct. 4) and World Kindness Day (Nov. 13). Start practicing.
• Speaking of sequels: Theaters will be full of old favorites, thanks to the scheduled release of movies featuring Superman, Thor, the Lone Ranger, “The Hobbit,” “Star Trek.” Arnold Schwarzenegger will go back to what he does best, starring in “The Last Stand.”
• Record U.S. agricultural exports of $145 billion were forecast last week for fiscal year 2013 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Ag imports are also expected to hit a record of $115 billion, for a positive ag trade balance of $30 billion… U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says American agriculture is booming. Demand for soybeans and wheat is surging across the world, with notable gains in China, Europe, and Southeast Asia expected to support strong cash receipts throughout the year.
• 2013 will be a year of serious global crisis. That crisis is predictable, and in fact has already begun. It will inescapably confront the next president of the United States. Yet this emerging crisis got not a mention at the Republican National Convention in Tampa…The crisis originates in this summer’s extreme weather. Almost 80% of the continental United States experienced drought conditions. Russia and Australia experienced drought as well.The drought has ruined key crops. The corn harvest is expected to drop to the lowest level since 1995. In just July, prices for corn and wheat jumped about 25% each, prices for soybeans about 17%. These higher grain prices will flow through to higher food prices. For consumers in developed countries, higher food prices are a burden — but in almost all cases, a manageable burden. Americans spend only about 10% of their after-tax incomes on food of all kinds, including restaurant meals and prepackaged foods. Surveys for Gallup find that the typical American family is spending one-third less on food today, adjusting for inflation, than in 1969. But step outside the developed world, and the price of food suddenly becomes the single most important fact of human economic life. In poor countries, people typically spend half their incomes on food — and by “food,” they mean first and foremost bread… The Arab Spring of 2011 is sometimes compared to the revolutions of 1848. That’s apter than people realize: the “hungry ’40s” were years of bad harvests across Europe. Hungry people are angry people, and angry people bring governments down. Will 2013 bring us social turmoil in Brazil, strikes in China or revolution in Pakistan? The answer can probably be read in the price indexes of the commodities exchanges — and it is anything but reassuring.
• …To date, Fukushima has already released 168 times the total radiation released from the Hiroshima nuclear bomb detonated in 1945, and the Fukushima catastrophe is now undeniably the worst nuclear disaster in the history of human civilization. But what if human civilization faced a far greater threat than a single tsunami destroying a nuclear power facility? What if a global tidal wave could destroy the power generating capacities of all the world’s power plants, all at once? Such a scenario is not merely possible, but factually inevitable. And the global tidal wave threatening all the nuclear power plants of the world isn’t made of water but solar emissions. The sun, you see, is acting up again. NASA recently warned that solar activity is surging, with a peak expected to happen in 2013 that could generate enormous radiation levels that sweep across planet Earth. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has even issued an urgent warning about solar flares due to strike in 2012 and 2013. IBtimes wrote, “With solar activity expected to peak around 2013, the Sun is entering a particularly active time and big flares like the recent one will likely be common during the next few years. [There will a an article discussing this top in the near future. Mr. Larry]
• Congress is preparing a welcome mat of sorts for illegal immigrants. Backers include Republicans looking to build bridges to the growing number of Hispanic voters, who overwhelmingly supported the president’s 2012 campaign. Your taxes are going up next year, even if a dive off the fiscal cliff is avoided, as it appears will be the case, and even if tax breaks are extended for most folks, as expected. The reason: Congress won’t extend the payroll tax holiday, which cut a worker’s share of the Social Security tax by two points. Cost to a typical family: About $2,000.
• Is 2013 the year Israel launches air strikes against Iran? It’s a good bet. Iran shows little interest in cooperating with calls to halt work at nuclear sites that are closing in on the capability to fashion nuclear weapons. Uncle Sam, though urging more talks, is poised to send Israel more bunker-busting bombs. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to fight alone, but won’t have to. At the very least, he’ll get radar and logistical help from the Obama administration. “Israel is prepared to act alone in this mission,” says a national security source close to Netanyahu, “but don’t be surprised if you see American fighter-bombers flying alongside our planes.”
• U.S. Employment “So much depends on how quickly people continue to fade from the labor force out of frustration. That could actually bring down the unemployment rate rather quickly without a strong recovery in job growth. A stronger economy might actually hold up that rate longer than a weak one, because people will … jump back in and look for work. But remember, the unemployment rate is murky as a signal for the strength of the economy.”
• The worst is yet to come for markets and the global economy in 2013, according to New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.
Major economies are either in a recession or experiencing slow growth rates, while in the United States, uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff — a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts due to strike next year — will roil markets as well. Big emerging markets like China are cooling their growth rates, while in a slew of countries, national and regional elections are set to take place in the near future, including in China, Korea, Japan, Israel, Germany, Italy and Catalonia, the latter being a pivotal Spanish province whose financing needs affects Spain and the broader Eurozone. U.S. stock prices, however, are high thanks to recent rallies stemming from Federal Reserve stimulus measures such as rate cuts or asset purchases, but with fundamentals eroding, stocks could plummet next year.
• NEW YORK — Investors need to prepare for an upcoming stock market crash that will be “worse than 2008.” That’s according to a well-respected author and investor, making a recent appearance on Fox Business. Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, says the stock market collapse we experienced in 2008 “wasn’t the real crash. The real crash is coming.” He says that Federal stimulus, or quantitative easing, never works and that it just makes the economy sicker in the end. “The reason we are so screwed up is all this quantitative easing is toxic. I don’t doubt that we are going to pressure Germany into printing. We are like the kid who is trying to get a friend to ditch school with us to go to the beach. We are a bad influence on everybody.” Schiff’s solution is to raise interest rates, but he acknowledges that it would bring a huge downside risk with it. “In America, the problem is that interest rates are too low. They have to go up. We can’t have an economy with interest rates at zero. If the Fed lets interest rates go up, we have to realize that we will have a deeper recession, we have to realize that banks are going to fail.” He points out that today’s “safe haven” investments — the U.S. dollar and Treasurys — are anything but safe. “There are a lot of people who don’t understand what is going on. Look at how many people are buying the dollar. Look at people buying Treasurys. That makes no sense either. The risk lies in the dollar. The risk lies in Treasurys and other currencies being printed into oblivion.” A noted economist agrees with Schiff that a much worse stock market crash is coming. And unlike Schiff, he has given very specific details about just how bad it will get. “The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.” That catastrophic outlook comes from Robert Wiedemer, economist and author of The New York Times best-seller Aftershock. Before you dismiss Wiedemer’s claims, consider this: In 2006 he accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. [From 2006 he missed the timing, because with the Fed printing so much(!) the markets are not free to operate and are not behavin g rationally, I’d give Weidemer another year or two; they will crash us, we’re already in a slow motion crash . Mr. Larry]
B. 50 Predictions For 2013
1 Jan 2013, The Economic Collapse.com, by Michael
Pasted from: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/50-predictions-for-2013
Are you ready for a wild 2013? It should be a very interesting year. When the calendar flips over each January, lots of people make lots of lists. They make lists of “resolutions”, but most people never follow through on them. They make lists of “predictions”, but most of those predictions always seem to end up failing. Well, I have decided to put out my own list of predictions for 2013. I openly admit that I won’t get all of these predictions right, and that is okay. Hopefully I will at least be more accurate than most of the other armchair prognosticators out there.
It is important to look ahead and try to get a handle on what is coming, because I believe that the rest of this decade is going to be extraordinarily chaotic for the U.S. economy. The false bubble of debt-fueled prosperity that we are enjoying right now is not going to last much longer. When it comes to an end, the “adjustment” is going to be extremely painful. Those that understand what is happening and have prepared for it will have the best chance of surviving what is about to hit us. I honestly don’t know what everybody else is going to do. Many of the people that don’t see the coming collapse approaching will be totally blindsided by it and will totally give in to despair when they realize what has happened. But there is no excuse for not seeing what is coming – the signs are everywhere.
So with that being said, the following are 50 bold predictions for 2013…
#1 There will be a major fight between the Republicans and the Democrats over raising the debt ceiling. This will be one of the stories that dominates news headlines in the months of February and March.
#2 Most of the new “revenue” that will be raised by tax increases in 2013 will come out of the pockets of the middle class.
#3 No matter what “fiscal deals” the Democrats and the Republicans make in 2013, the federal budget deficit will still end up being greater than a trillion dollars for the fifth consecutive year.
#4 The credit rating of the U.S. government will be downgraded again in 2013.
#5 The Federal Reserve, along with major central banks all over the globe, will continue to wildly print money.
#6 There will be more criticism of the Federal Reserve in 2013 than at any other time since it was created back in 1913.
#7 The term “currency war” will be used by the media more in 2013 than it was in 2012.
#8 The movement away from the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency of the world will pick up momentum. This will especially be true in Asia.
#9 The economic depressions in Greece and Spain will get even worse and unemployment in the eurozone will go even higher in 2013.
#10 A financial crisis in Europe will cause officials to grasp for “radical solutions” that will surprise many analysts.
#11 The unemployment rate in the United States will be higher by the end of 2013 than it is now.
#12 The percentage of working age Americans with a job will fall below 58 percent by the end of the year.
#13 At least one “too big to fail” bank will fail in the United States by the end of 2013.
#14 By the end of the year, more people than ever will understand what “derivatives” are, and that will be because they have caused major problems in the financial world.
#15 We will see the beginnings of another major housing crisis before the end of 2013 and foreclosure activity will start rising once again.
#16 We will see another new wave of “tent cities” start to go up in communities around the nation before the end of the year.
#17 There will be another major drought in the United States this upcoming summer and there will be widespread crop failures once again.
#18 The massive dust storms that we have seen roll through cities like Phoenix in recent years will become even larger and even more intense.
#19 Traffic along the Mississippi River will be significantly interrupted at some point during 2013. This will be a very negative thing for the economy.
#20 Food prices will soar in 2013. This will especially be true for meat products.
#21 In some of the poorer areas of the globe, major food riots will break out. Governments will have trouble containing the civil unrest.
#22 There will be more genetically-modified foods in our supermarkets than ever before, and more Americans than ever will reject them and will seek out alternatives.
#23 The average price of a gallon of gasoline in 2012 was about $3.60. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in 2013 will be lower than that. Yes, you read that correctly.
#24 The number of vehicle miles driven in the United States will continue to decline in 2013.
#25 The Dow will end 2013 significantly lower than it is right now.
#26 When the final statistics for 2013 are compiled, U.S. share of global GDP will be less than 20 percent for the first time in modern history. Back in the year 2001, our share of global GDP was 31.8 percent.
#27 The U.S. Postal Service will continue to experience massive financial difficulties and will lay off personnel.
#28 As violence in our public schools becomes increasingly worse, more Americans families than ever will decide to home school their children.
#29 The Obama administration and Democrats in Congress will make an all-out attempt to pass gun control measures in 2013. When their efforts on the legislative front are stalled somewhat by Republicans in the House, Obama will use his executive powers to further his gun control agenda.
#30 One of the cities with the strongest gun laws in the nation, Chicago, had 532 murders in 2012 and it is now considered to be one of the most dangerous cities on the planet. By the end of 2013, the murder total in Chicago will be above 600.
#31 There will be an increasing amount of tension between state governments and the federal government. The issue of “states rights” will move front and center at various points in 2013.
#32 CNN will continue to sink to horrifying new lows. Piers Morgan will end up leaving the network before the end of the year.
#33 The number of Americans on food stamps will surpass 50 million for the first time ever at some point during 2013.
#34 The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2013 will be well over 300 billion dollars.
#35 The phrase “made in China” will increasingly be viewed as a reason not to buy a product as Americans become more educated about the millions of good jobs that we have lost to China over the past decade.
#36 We will see increasing cooperation between the governments of the United States, Canada and Mexico and border restrictions will be loosened.
#37 There will continue to be a mass exodus of families and businesses out of the state of California. The favorite destination will continue to be Texas, but Texas residents will become increasingly resentful of all of these new transplants.
#38 There will be some truly jaw-dropping examples of violence by parents against their own children in 2013. Many of these stories will make headlines all over the nation.
#39 The percentage of Americans that are obese will continue to rise and will set another new all-time record in 2013.
#40 There will be more war in the Middle East in 2013. But it will only set the stage for even more war in the Middle East in 2014 and 2015.
#41 U.S. troops will be deployed in more countries than ever before in 2013.
#42 Volcanic eruptions and major earthquakes along the Ring of Fire will make headlines all over the globe in 2013.
#43 Giant sinkholes will continue to appear all over the United States and all over the globe, and scientists will continue to struggle to find an explanation for why it is happening.
#44 The peak of the solar cycle in 2013 will cause significant problems for satellite communications.
#45 The U.S. government will put more resources into the surveillance of the American people than ever before, but most Americans won’t mind all of this surveillance because they have become convinced that it is important to give up some of our liberties for more “security”.
#46 Our infrastructure (roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, sewers, electrical grids, etc.) will be in worse shape by the end of 2013 than it is now.
#47 The percentage of “two parent households” in the United States will continue to decline.
#48 “Political correctness” will reach ridiculous new heights during 2013, and more Americans than ever will start to rebel against it.
#49 There will be more anger at the wealthy in 2013 than at any other time in modern history.
#50 There will be some shocking political scandals in Washington D.C. in 2013. We will see some high profile resignations by the end of the year. Once again, please keep in mind that I do not expect to be 100% correct about all of these things. I am just trying to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together just like everyone else is. But I do hope to have a better track record than most of the other people putting out lists of predictions at the beginning of this year. So save this list and let’s revisit it at the end of the year.