The coming SHTF event

(Survival Manual/ Prepper articles/The coming SHTF event)

A.  What Will The End Be Like For Me If I Don’t Prepare?
13 Aug 2013, SHTFplan.com, by Be Informed
Excerpts pasted from: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/what-will-the-end-be-like-for-me-if-i-dont-prepare_08132013

This article has been shared with the SHTFplan community by long-time contributor Be Informed. It is a continuation of efforts to alert and inform Americans of the real possibility of a sustained collapse of the world as we have come to know it. We encourage you to read previous contributions from Be Informed that include How Horrific Will It Be For The Non-Prepper? and Life or Death Choices: 35 Excuses That Will Doom the Non-Prepper.

When “The End” is brought up in conversation most people think of a science fiction novel or movie portraying it as some Earth shattering event – boom and it is over.  The almost certain truth behind this is that it will not be the Earth, the Sun, or solar system that gets it.  The real end will more than likely come with human civilization as we know it coming to an abrupt closure.  What you as a person are in danger of is very likely not a mass extinction of all of human life, but the crumbling and complete fall of the structures and foundation that holds up all that most every human being depends on for survival.

There is an old saying that ‘no man is an island.’ It indeed takes a rare, almost unique person who can boast that they are free of dependency of the components of modern day life to make it alone.  If and when human society collapses, someone’s chances of post True SHTF (TSHTF) survival will be partially in proportion to just how self reliant they can become.  The other ratio will be just how well someone can adapt to a new world void of the conveniences which have become totally expected by the masses.

Many will say to the themselves, “here we go again with another doomsday prophesy that will again fail to manifest itself.”

So what makes this warning any different than those of the past?  This is NOT some forewarning of any imminent mega society ending event(s) such as World War 3, an economic collapse, super virus outbreak, colossal solar flare, supervolcano erupting, or some other equally awful horror.  This is about understanding what you are doing as a person, a parent, a son or daughter, a friend. If you awoke one morning and learned that a catastrophic event had broken loose, how well prepared (or how totally unprepared) are you?

Anyone doubting just how terrible life can be need only experience longer term (more than 3 days) power outages at any time of year, but especially during temperature and weather extremes.  These losses of power happen all the time, EVERYWHERE.  Being brutally honest, can anyone say to themselves that that life without power for weeks or months or longer will be anything less than awful for the general population?  This is a mere taste of what an implosion would be like.  The frailness of the infrastructure of any country is incredible.  Few understand or care to think about this, because the prevailing attitude for most is, “it will always be there for me and work for me.”

Again, this is not to convince anyone of a specific event such as a widespread cyber attack that destroys the electric grid or a wide variety of natural disasters that can and do sometimes flatten what someone depends on working to live.  The internet is full of disaster scenarios and even some probabilities of occurrences.  The vulnerability to any place on the planet is there, as recent hurricanes have proven all too well.  It is about how awful life threatening events, a whole host of too many to mention, that ends your modern day life as you know it.  This does not mean it has to end your life and your family’s lives though.

When people think of losing modern day conveniences they think of losing their cell phones, their access to games and other entertainment, mobile devices; in other words, FUN devices.  The list of just how much will be lost that modern humans have become totally reliant on to live is absolutely staggering.  With a civilization collapse you can expect much to be lost immediately, then gradually over the next few hours to days that list will continue growing and expanding to frightening levels.

The following list exemplifies just how much a person has to lose if they have failed to prepare themselves for emergencies. After a large enough catastrophe, the recovery time frame can be very long term, or potentially never for certain critical needs.

1.  No clean water pouring out of the faucets to drink.

2.  No hot or cold water to shower, bathe or wash your hands.

3.  No washing machines or dishwashers to clean your clothes or dirty dishes.

4.  No flushing toilets.

5.  No heat or air conditioning, not even fans.

6.  No light at night.

7.   No grocery stores or home delivered food, no restaurants, no food period.

8.   No trash pickup; the waste quickly mounds up, harbors bacteria and allows the  spread of disease.

9.   No medications, especially antibiotics, or simple over the counter remedies.

10.  No vitamin or mineral supplements to help maintain your body.

11.  No 911 emergency help service.

12.  No mechanical transportation; no fuel available.

13.  No protection, no law enforcement.

14.  No communications; no Internet, no TV, no radio, no clue what is going on.

15.  No telephones, no way of talking to people miles away, you’re cut off from your social network.

16.  No refrigeration, no freezers, no food preservation to keep food from going bad quickly.

17.  No stoves or microwaves, no cooking food or sterilizing water.

18.  No easily prepared meals.

19.  No toilet paper, and no good alternative to toilet paper to those unaware of other options.

20.  No feminine toiletries.

21.  No pest control against injurious insects, or from packs of roaming feral animals.

22.  No utilities; no gas, no electricity, no way to make anything in your home function.

23.  No advanced warning of weather, war, or other life threatening events.

24.  No odor control from rotting wastes or rotting corpses.

25.  No healthy food to maintain proper nutrition, leading to weakness and ill health

26.  No proper basic hygiene, lack of bacteria control on the body, especially the teeth.

27.  No repair of tooth cavities or other life threatening oral problems.

28.  No pain control, no aspirin, no way to ease pain, ie., from a bad tooth.

29.  No basic first aid to treat minor injuries to keeping them from becoming infected.

30.  No replacements for worn out clothes, shoes, socks, or underwear.

31.  No replacement parts to fix things that have broken.

32.  No soap or disinfectants.

33.  No outdoor protection from the elements such as sunburns.

34.  No social safety nets: No welfare, no assistance, no government food.

35.  No sexual protection from the wide array of deadly diseases that are transmittable.

36.  No treatment for the sick and dying.

37.  No modern power tools for structural or mechanical repairs.

38.  No way of cleaning up toxic spills that range from irritating to hazardous.

39.  No care, help or chance for medical help for the needs of infants and children.

40.  No protection against rabies.

 41.  No means of easing widespread and intense chronic depression.

42.  No outlets of entertainment to distract people from their overwhelming despair and fear.

43.  No familiar and basic everyday needs that give comfort and security to most people.

44.  No way of contacting family and friends.

45.  No respectable way of laying to rest the body a family member, friend or neighbor.

46.  No way of protecting yourself and family from roaming gangs, unless you have adequate firepower.

47.  No workable answers-solutions from the rudimentary to complex problems that will frequently present themselves.

48.  No calling up your local professional help to repair something that is essential to you.

49.  No feeling of being civilized; losing everything, becoming dirty and unkept tends to rapidly reduce everyone’s sense of humanity.

50.  No way out of your predicament without having prepared to some degree for downfall of society.

The need for society and human civilization to remain as close to “normal” and fully functioning cannot be over emphasized as it relates to the life and death of nearly 100% of our population if these systems cease to operate.  The more modern a country is, the farther the fall will be to the bottom when the infrastructure fails to support the people.  The above 50 losses paint a very bleak picture and show the likelihood of a mass die off as almost certain with the breakdown of the foundation that keeps the masses upright.  This doesn’t have to occur to anyone willing to just say no to this addiction of letting society mollycoddle everyone into helpless baby birds unable to live without constant feedings.

To prevent the obvious helplessness of anyone and to strengthen the resolve and readiness of those whom choose to prepare, one must start right now and continue to ready themselves for the day when human civilization will either partially cave in or fully disintegrate.

So what is the answer to someone that wants to survive an end to modern human civilization?

First and foremost you must be willing to do what is necessary and have the conviction to stick to the need for survival.  Each survival situation is vastly different – city vs. country life, arid vs. humid areas, frigid vs. hot climates, etc., etc.  In other words, no survival plan fits all. Our efforts should be focused on having the tools, supplies and skills to cope with a mega, or even lighter weight, disaster.

The best course of action is to be willing to spend the time and effort to learn what survival plan is right for you.

This is where the internet comes in.  While you still have access to it, utilize it.  SHTFplan.com has many excellent ideas and plans in the archives on survival.  Other sites all over the internet and many excellent books on the subject are everywhere. Some excellent resources we recommend:

• Ready Nutrition
• The Organic Prepper
• Survival Blog
• The Survival Mom
• Prepper Website
• Alt-Market
• The Apartment Prepper

(There are tons of great sites out there, so please feel free to share your favorites in the comments section)

It is the commitment to go that extra mile to obtain this information that is best for you as the individual.  Then you as a person, part of a family, whatever, must do what is suggested and best for you with this wealth of information available to you before anything happens and all is lost.  You and your family has to want to NOT be stuck in the sinking of the tar that society will become someday.  Say to yourself that ‘I won’t accept being the individuals that have nothing’  and that ‘I will act on my desire and need to survive and won’t delay one moment.’

Even seasoned preppers and survivalists can ALWAYS learn that much more and should not procrastinate obtaining that special need that still eludes them.

Today not tomorrow, because time could be running out faster than anyone realizes.

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B.   Beck Warns Of Mass Chaos: “The Likes of Which the Globe Has Never Seen”
14 Aug 2013, SHTFplan.com, by MacSlavo
Pasted from: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/beck-warns-of-mass-chaos-the-likes-of-which-the-globe-has-never-seen_08142013

There will come a time this decade when everything that we have come to believe about the stability of our socio-economics system will be revealed for the underlying disaster that it really is.

When the US dollar is rejected by our lenders, when EBT distributions no longer cover critical expenses because food prices reach unattainable levels, when our debt burdens overwhelm our government, when America’s polarized political factions starting pointing fingers – it is then that we will experience a collapse unlike anything we could ever imagine.

The Constitution and the rule of law will be thrown out the window.
And the people will turn on each other.

I am telling you, we are about to have an economic impact the likes of which the globe has never seen.
When… not if… when the chickens come home to roost you will have mass chaos, not just in the middle east, but it will slide the entire globe into chaos. And, that means an economic impact – because of all of the things that we have done – the world has never seen.

And then comes the giant reset.
…
If you don’t know history, you are about to repeat it.
And if you think you know American history, where it’s all sunshine and lollipops because we had the Constitution and that we were always good… if you think we’re past the lynching in the streets…
It’s not about black or white. It’s about who has power. Forget racism. Try to put this into the context of humans. Racism is a human defect, not a white defect, not a black defect, not a brown or yellow… It’s a human defect.
And whoever has power lynches the others in the streets…. blames them… and kills them.
If you think I’m wrong on that then read history for ten minutes.

Glenn Beck YouTube video
Pasted from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CpCo63uFos0

History has proven this to be true, and if you think humans have changed in the last 5,000 years because of modern conveniences and ideologies, then you’re kidding yourself.

This is coming. The government knows it, and that’s why they have been simulating the collapse of our economic system and its aftermath. That’s why they have militarized our local police forces. That’s why they are stockpiling food, ammunition, weapons and other supplies.

We have created the largest financial and economic bubble in the history of humankind, and it is clearly unsustainable.
Widespread chaos is coming, just as it has done so many times throughout history.
It’s time you take measures to prepare for it, or face the inevitable horrors that will follow.

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C.   The ‘Die Off’ Will Start Immediately After a Complete Collapse
23 Feb 2011, SHTFplan.com, by MacSlavo
Pasted from: http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/the-post-shtf-die-off-will-start-immediately_02232011

In his book, One Second After, William Forstchen, paints a grim picture of a post-apocalyptic world in which an electro-magnetic pulse has wiped out the entire power-grid infrastructure of the United States. Utilities like water and electric, transportation systems, cell phones, and even vehicles are disabled by the blast. The book focuses on one particular town and the challenges they face going forward.

One of the key issues becomes what is commonly referred to in the preparedness and survival community as “the golden horde,” a term introduced by James Rawles of Survival Blog:

As the comfort level in the cities rapidly drops to nil, there will be a massive involuntary outpouring from the big cities and suburbs into the hinterboonies. This is the phenomenon that my late father, Donald Robert Rawles–a career particle physics research administrator at Lawrence Livermore Laboratories–half-jokingly called The Golden Horde. He was of course referring to the Mongol Horde of the 13th Century, but in a modern context. (The Mongol rulers were chosen from the ‘Golden Family’ of Temujin. Hence the term The Golden Horde.) I can remember as a child, my father pointing to the hills at the west end of the Livermore Valley, where we then lived. He opined: If The Bomb ever drops, we’ll see a Golden Horde come swarming over those hills [from Oakland and beyond] of the like that the world has never seen. And they’ll be very unpleasant, believe you me!

As the fictional, but quite realistic, crisis in Forstchen’s book grows deeper, and city dwellers spread throughout the countryside looking for essential resources, the people were forced to make hard decisions. They could either share their food and resources with the horde, thereby decreasing their own survival rate, or, they would have to aggressively defend their land. Like most would do in that situation, the town chose to keep what they had to themselves, and send all others packing, by force if necessary.

If the worst were to ever happen – and we’re not talking about a short-term disaster – but, rather, an all out collapse of the world as we know it, including a complete grid-down scenario and a breakdown in food production and emergency services, the majority of the population in the regions(s) affected would likely perish. In a recent report the Center for Security Policy suggested that in such a scenario 9 Out of 10 Americans Would Be Dead Within One Year – a terrifying thought, indeed.

Considering that most people have less than a week’s worth of food in their pantries, no medical supplies, and absolutely no idea how to operate without electricity, one can guesstimate that the die-off would begin almost immediately after the grid goes down. Within several weeks, tens of thousands would succumb to starvation and/or disease. In many cases, dehydration and the elements would also become a key factor. Patriot Nurse recently put together a commentary discussing “Who Will Die First”, in which she breaks down the highest risk groups into sub-categories, which we’ll discuss, in part, below:

Physically Disabled
Those with medical conditions requiring daily drug dosing, as well as those who depend on third party medical care, would likely be the first to go. During Hurricane Katrina hundreds of elderly people were left to die in hospitals and care facilities. They had no food, no clean water and no medicine. Their caregivers, in some cases acting immorally, but in other cases simply acting out of fear, left them without assistance. Those who are dependent on others to stay alive in modern society should consider who their caretakers are, because when the SHTF, chances are that an employee working at a nursing home will choose to go home and be with their family, or flee the area altogether.

 Individuals With Drug Dependent Healthcare Needs
In One Second After, the daughter of the main character is a diabetic requiring insulin. Within hours of the grid going down, pharmacies are overwhelmed with patrons attempting to get their prescription medicines. The electronic systems are inoperable, further complicating matters. Even for those who were able to acquire their meds, the supplies were only temporary, because within a week the shelves were empty and no resupply was coming. There are roughly 1.5 million insulin dependent diabetics in the United States. Because this particular drug requires cold storage, in a grid down situation, effective supplies would be depleted within a matter of weeks. In this particular instance, the fatality rate would be nearly 100%. The same can be said for many other types of medications, including oxygen. We urge those with drug dependent medical conditions to treat this aspect of preparedness like water and food. If you will require medicine, try to create a reserve by stocking up some extra medication. For those requiring cooled medicines, do you have an alternative energy plan to keep a compact refrigerator going?

Physical Handicaps
When faced with a survival situation, in general, the old adage “survival of the fittest,” applies. Those with physical handicaps, especially those requiring external locomotion, like those little scooters we see people riding at Walmart, will be at a disadvantage. They’ll be easy targets for looters, and will likely be incapable of foraging for food and resources. For some, the handicap is self-manifested, such as in the case of excessive obesity. In these cases, an emergency preparedness plan should include getting physically fit. For others, however, conditions cannot be treated easily. Physically handicapped individuals should take steps now to determine their action plan in the event of SHTF. Do you have a caregiver who you trust to get you out of a bind? Perhaps looking to relocate to an area where extensive travel post-SHTF will not be required is a good idea.

The Government Dependent Welfare Class
Patriot Nurse refers to the individuals in this group as those with a “stereotypical”  cradle-to-grave mentality. Of course, not everyone in this category is stereotypical, but we can certainly understand what she’s getting at. The majority of these people live on government subsistence, therefore they likely have no ability to procure resources before a disaster. At the onset of crisis, they will likely be looking for help from the same organizations that have provided it in the past. But those organizations will be unable to assist. Many of those within this category will die-off from lack of food, clean water, disease and violence. Given that, in general, within this category is the highest violent crime rate in the country, it will be from within this group of people that we’ll get our first taste of looters, gangs, and violent thieves. Some criminal elements will certainly survive, but violence begets violence, especially in a battle for resources, thus a good portion will be killed off by those defending themselves.

Yuppies and Neo-Hippies
Another name we can give this category is the urban and suburban city dwellers. Though they may be different politically, and possess different skill sets, the majority of those within this category simply do not have the necessary survival tools to make it. Neo-hippies, as defined by Patriot Nurse are those who may be capable of small-scale agriculture and raising micro-livestock, but their ‘peaceful’ nature has not prepared them to handle aggressive and violent behavior aimed at taking the resources they produce. The Yuppies, generally defined as those who live in suburban McMansion style homes are simply ill-prepared. Rather than preparing for a crisis, they spent their hard earned money on new cars, TV’s, fashion and dinners out. When the SHTF, they will simply not be ready and their pantries will be empty within a week’s time, at which point they, like the looters from the welfare class, will be left with no choice but to head into the streets looking for supplies.

There are, of course, other sub categories, but the above covers the majority of the populace. A good portion of those with the capability to travel, be it on foot or in a vehicle, will eventually head out of the cities. The realization that the system has broken down will not take long – perhaps a week or two – before they hit the highways.

Their destination of choice will likely become National or State parks, lakes and coastal regions, or small towns, where they expect to find food. Most will have no more than a tank of gas, giving them a range of roughly 300 miles from their home city. If you are located near an interstate highway, or even a state highway, within 300 miles of a major city, then you may very well see a golden horde of cars. Those without cars will go on foot. As they get further out of the cities, they will begin to perish due to lack of food and potable water. On foot, their range while lacking in resources will be maybe 50 – 150 miles.

Safety in the Country?
For those living in exurbia or rural surroundings the situation will certainly not be as dire as for those bunched in the cities. However, it will likely be just as dangerous. Eventually, elements from the cities with both, good intentions and bad, will reach you. If you are in a small town, and the town fails to implement defense strategies, then it can be easily overrun by organized and heavily armed gangs.

You’ll also have to deal with those of your neighbors who failed to prepare. Even though people may have gardens or livestock, their ability to maintain these will be threatened as traditional feed stores and tools will no longer be readily available. In One Second After, the story revolved around a small town in the middle of nowhere, yet a large portion of the population died off simply because there was a lack of resources. Even hunting became difficult, as game ran thin because everyone in the area was looking to have squirrel for dinner. The additional threat in the country is that, generally, people in the country are well armed with long range hunting rifles, a situation that presents quite a bit of peril if that person is aware you have resources and they are lacking.

The Die Off is a worst case consideration, and one you should be familiar with before any such event occurs. It will occur only in a complete collapse of the world as we know it and would include a complete breakdown of our electrical and utility grids, communications infrastructure and food transportation systems.

Yes, it’s unlikely. But given that our entire way of life is dependent on modern day technology, such a disruption would have severe consequences for all involved.

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D.   Further reading
1)  Mark Levin: Government Is “Simulating the Collapse of Our Financial System, the Collapse of Our Society and the Potential for Widespread Violence” at:
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/mark-levin-government-is-simulating-the-collapse-of-our-financial-system-the-collapse-of-our-society-and-the-potential-for-widespread-violence_03082013

2)  Real U.S. Government Debt is Much Worse Than You Think at-
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-real-u-s-government-debt-is-much-worse-than-you-think_102010

3)  Shadow Government Bunkers: Security Heightened at Underground Storage Facilities at-
http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/shadow-government-bunkers-security-heightened-at-underground-storage-facilities_05092011

4)  Report: Disaster Looms: FEMA Scrambles To Stockpile Food Reserves at-
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/report-disaster-looms-fema-scrambles-to-stockpile-food-reserves_08052013