Biological Warfare

The government may be able to provide early warning of an attack via the Emergency Alert System (EAS). Having a NOAA weather radio with alarm in your house or on your person may be yet another option to help detect a chemical or biological attack, as well as alerting you to many other emergencies. Still, remember that the government may not know of an attack and broadcast an alert before your chemical detector itself alerts. So, do not rely entirely on EAS, but rely upon your observations and your chemical detector.

Bottom Line: Chemical and biological attacks can be detected early, by watching for signs of dispersal, dead insects/animals, sick and injured people, etc. The government’s Emergency Alert System (EAS) may also be of value in alerting you to an attack. Chemical attacks can also be detected with inexpensive chemical detection gear.

2.  Anthrax attack could kill 123,000
18 March 2003, BBC News
Pasted from:  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2857207.stm
An anthrax weapon aimed at a major city could kill at least 123,000 people even if every victim received treatment, experts have calculated. US researchers have used a computer model to predict the devastation that would result from the launch of an anthrax bomb or missile on a city the size of New York. The figures are based on what would happen if a bomb containing 1 kilogram of anthrax spores was dropped on a city of 10 million inhabitants.

The projected number of fatalities is based on the assumption that antibiotics would not be administered for 48 hours until the first symptoms appeared. If it proved possible to distribute drugs more quickly, then the death toll could be substantially reduced. However, they warn that inadequacies in the current US emergency response plan may make such a rapid response unlikely.

Lead researcher Dr Lawrence Wein, from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, California, said: “The first people develop symptoms within two days of exposure, and many more would develop symptoms over the next week. “Our response needs to be measured in hours, not in days or weeks.”

Intensive care
Five of the 11 people who inhaled anthrax during the 2001 attacks on the US postal system died despite intensive treatment by large teams of doctors.

The researchers recommend distributing anti-anthrax antibiotics such as Cipro in advance of any major attack. If this was not possible, then the aim should be to distribute antibiotics to everyone infected within 12 hours.

In the case of an attack on New York City, that would mean supplying the drugs to 1.5 million people. The only way to do this would be to increase the number of available health professionals dramatically. The researchers estimate that to keep the death toll down to about 1,000, one health professional would be required for every 700 people in the affected population.
This could only be achieved by training non-emergency medical staff and making maximum use of military personnel and volunteers.

Similar findings
Dr Robert Spencer, an infection control expert at the UK Public Health Laboratory Service, told BBC News Online that the conclusions were similar to those reached by research carried out by the
World Health Organization in 1970. However, he said it was very difficult to determine what would happen should weapons grade anthrax be released on a city, not least because of weather patterns, and the complex effect of wind distribution in a built up area.

Dr Spencer said the only recorded case of anthrax release, from a Soviet installation in 1974, had resulted in surprisingly few cases of illness. “It would be very difficult to disprove what they are saying,” he said. “My personal feeling is that anthrax is not a weapon of mass destruction, but a weapon of mass hysteria.
“Terrorists like bombs, they know what happens when they cause an explosion, and can make predictions based on that.”
Dr Spencer also said that to stock up on vaccines and antibiotics to combat a possible anthrax attack would be to drain resources away from more certain demands for health care.
The research is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Bottom Line
Biological weapons are simply diseases. Some have been altered to be more virulent, but all are just the same diseases the world has confronted for years. Remember, smallpox used to be occurring in epidemic proportions before the smallpox vaccine. And, plague wiped out over a third of Europe’s population during the Black Death. These diseases, for the most part, are nothing new.

3.  A Hypothetical Scenario
You may think, “It can’t happen here.” Do you think it could happen in the State of Israel? Do you think residents of that nation are potential targets? Do you think that visitors from that nation, who are unknowingly infected, might take a plane trip to the United States? The smallpox incubation period is nine days.
Suicide squad members could walk into an Israeli airport in a busy time and be searched by Israeli inspectors. They could then sit in the area close to ticket-takers and passport-stampers. That would do it. From then on, airport personnel would become carriers.

The group could send in one carrier per day for a week, just to make sure. Each one gets on an El Al plane and flies to America. Each American city is different. All are large. By the end of the flight, every plane would be carrying dozens of living weapons of mass destruction, all visiting relatives, friends, and business associates.

Meanwhile, three or four will do the same thing in a
London airport.
The next day, the planes’ crews will climb aboard and fly
back home. The flight attendants will serve meals, these being cross-Atlantic flights. You tell me: What is a feasible defense?
There is no feasible defense against this strategy, other than prayer. But the potentially targeted victims are not praying about this. They do not recognize the threat. I doubt that they will until after the strategy has been implemented.
Do you think the U.S. government will ever go public and warn people that this threat exists? When there is no known defense?

If I can figure this out, a terrorist group can. Hammes says that there are multiple Islamic Websites that cover fourth-generation warfare. These people are professionals. We should not underestimate them. As war spreads in the Middle East, there will be recruits.
Of course, you may think that peace will soon break out in the Middle East, that a new appreciation of Americans and Israelis is just around the corner. I do not share your optimism.

Most Americans believe they are immune from threats like this one, just because they are Americans. They are wrong. Increasingly in the future, Americans will become ever-more vulnerable targets, just because they are Americans.

4.  Ten Steps to prepare
1)  The first step in preparing for such an event is mental-emotional. You must face technological reality. This bioterrorism threat is a possibility, not a fantasy. Not many people will make this mental transition this side of the first city’s outbreak. After that, they will have only a few hours to make fundamental changes in their lives. Not many people will understand what is happening and how little time they have to prepare themselves.
2)  Second, you must be spiritually prepared to die for your cause, just as the enemy is willing to die for his.
3)  Third, you must have economic reserves that are not dependent on re-supply by inter-state trucking.
The United States is dependent on inter-state trucking. You must recognize that thousands of truckers will quit when they are told to deliver goods into a city that has been hit by a plague.
4)  Fourth, you must have economic reserves that are not dependent on fractional reserve banking. There will be a run on ATM’s within a day after the first report surfaces. The currency will not be re-deposited in another bank — the ultimate threat to fractional reserve banking. Within a day or two, banks will not allow people to withdraw cash.
5)  Fifth, you must have a primary residence or secondary residence in a small town location that is not in the path of traffic. Not many people will enjoy this benefit. There are some areas inside the United States that would have a huge safety factor.
6)  Sixth, you must have good relations with your neighbors. The division of labor will move down, rapidly. Community quarantines against outsiders will be imposed, once it is clear that the country is under biological attack.
7)  Seventh, you must be emotionally willing to admit to yourself what is happening as soon as the first reports of a major plague or rare disease hit the Web. You must be willing to take decisive, possibly expensive, immediate steps that will not be possible within a few days after the initial report.
8)  Eighth, you must be prepared to risk taking your annual vacation the next day. Your boss won’t like it. But you will need time to complete your defensive plans.
9)  Ninth, it would be best to have an occupation that is mobile geographically.
10)  Tenth, you must be prepared to take in close relatives, which means exposing yourself to risk.
Thus means extra space. The cheapest way to get this is with a used mobile home, single-wide, 10 years or older. This means living in the country: no zoning laws. It could mean buying a second property within a few miles of a small town home.

Most people cannot and will not take these steps in time. They think, “This can never happen.” They also think that, as Americans, they are immune to a world comparable to what millions of Iraqis are facing and have faced since 2003. Two million of them, out of a population of 25 million, have left their country, probably permanently. They faced reality early.

 5.  Dark Winter: A Bioterrorism Simulation Exercise
See more about this exercise at: http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/duffy81a.html
or run a Google search for “Dark Winter”

The National Security Council and Senior  level government officials participated in a simulated terrorist attack on three American cities using weaponized smallpox.

Historically, smallpox has been the most deadly of all diseases for humans, killing between 300 and 500 million in the last century alone, far more than the 111 million people killed in all that century’s wars combined. It is easily spread, kills 30% of those infected, and terribly scars and sometimes blinds those who survive. It was declared eradicated from Earth in 1980, but the Soviet Union has acknowledged maintaining a secret biological weapons program since then that employed 60,000 technicians and scientists. One fear is that some of the smallpox the Soviets worked with has gotten into terrorist hands, or that unemployed Soviet scientists desperate for money have been hired by Iraq, Al Qaida, or other terrorists.

On June 22-23, 2001, nearly three months before the attack that toppled New York’s World Trade towers, the United States conducted a major simulation of a terrorist smallpox attack against three American cities. It was named Dark Winter, and it lived up to its name.

Synopsis: Within seven weeks, one million Americans were dead and the disease had spread to 25 states and 13 foreign countries. In the face of the out of control epidemic, panic had spread across America, interrupting vital services such as food deliveries to supermarkets, and our Government considered the possibility of a nuclear response, although against whom it was not clear.

The goal of the exercise was to increase awareness among Government officials of the danger of such an attack, and to examine the decision challenges the highest levels of Government would face if confronted with a biological attack. The ultimate aim was to improve strategies of response.

Smallpox was chosen as the disease because historically it has been the most feared and deadly of diseases, and one of the more likely choices for terrorists. It is not only easily spread from one person to another, but there is no effective medical treatment. It may also be unstoppable in an unvaccinated population, and since the United States’ mandatory vaccination program was stopped in 1972, the U.S.
population is very susceptible to smallpox. Even that part of the population that was vaccinated as late as 1972 may have little or no protection against the disease.

The exercise took place at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland, and was attended by many senior level government officials. Participating institutions included the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Bio-Defense Strategies, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, and the Analytic Services Institute for Homeland Security.

Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia played the President of the United States, Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma played himself, five senior journalists who worked for major news organizations participated in mock news briefings, and a number of other participants played various key government positions ranging from the Director of Central Intelligence to key Government health advisors. Fifty people connected with U.S. bioterrorism policy preparedness observed the exercise.

Although the exercise took only two days, it simulated a time span of two weeks occurring between December 9-22, 2002. The exercise involved three National Security Council (NSC) meetings taking place on Dec. 9, 15, and 22, with the participants being made aware of evolving details of the attack and being required to establish strategies and make policy decisions to deal with it.

Exercise controllers acted as special assistants and deputies, providing facts and suggesting policy options to deal with the smallpox outbreak. Simulated newspaper coverage and TV video clips of the ensuing epidemic were also shown to participants, and various simulated memoranda, intelligence updates, and top level assessments of the spread of the epidemic were provided to key players whose jobs would normally require such information.

Each of the three NSC meetings began with controllers giving the NSC players briefings on the progress of the attack, an assessment of who the perpetrators might be, the response of the public, the comments of foreign governments, and any other information they would normally receive in such an emergency.

The game
The game starts with a brief television report that about two dozen people checked into an Oklahoma City hospital with an unidentified illness. Doctors soon find the patients have smallpox, a highly contagious and deadly disease unseen in the United States since 1949.

Similar smallpox cases are reported in Pennsylvania and Georgia. By day six, 300 Americans are dead and 2,000 others are infected.
Cases of smallpox are reported in Mexico, Canada and Britain, according to the scenario.

Meanwhile, the US Heath system is overwhelmed, the 12 million doses of smallpox vaccine quickly disappear, schools nationwide are forced to close, and public
gatherings are limited due to fear of contagion.

Droves of Oklahomans anxious to flee stream toward Texas — but the Texas governor, eager to protect his own residents, closes the border and deploys the state National Guard. Shots are fired.

As the standoff between Texans and Oklahomans deepens, a rift opens between federal and local authorities. Members of the US National Security Council suggest “nationalizing” the national guard, while state governors insist on keeping the local troops under their control.

On day 12 of the scenario, when the death toll reaches 1,000, interstate commerce grinds to a halt and stock trading is suspended. Demonstrations demanding more smallpox vaccines turn into riots. The United Nations moves its headquarters from New York to Geneva, Switzerland.

Less than two months after the outbreak, when the number of dead reach one million and three million more are infected, the president, played in the exercise by Nunn, gathers his top aide to considers imposing marshal law.

End of the Dark Winter exercise
Five lessons were learned from this exercise.

1. A biological attack at this level would result in massive loss of life.
2. Current governmental structures are not capable of managing such an attack.
3. U.S. health care infrastructure lacks a surge capability, thus leaving it open to complete failure in the event of mass casualties.
4. Managing the media and providing citizens with the right information would be an enormous challenge.
5. Americans are totally unprepared for the myriad social, political and ethical challenges
   posed by this threat.

Perhaps a more elemental lesson was that people have an innate dread of plagues. It is therefore easy for a situation such as this to quickly degenerate into social breakdown and mob violence.
Particularly with diseases such as smallpox, which are particularly ugly in their symptoms and virulence, it is a fine line between mass fear and total panic.

In addition to raising public awareness of the bioterrorism threat, briefings from Dark Winter, the exercise contributed to the George Walker Bush Administration’s decision to manufacture 300 million doses of the smallpox vaccine.

The “Dark Winter” exercise “demonstrated how poorly current organizational structures and capabilities fit the management needs and operational requirements of a bioterrorism response.
Responding to a bioterrorist attack will require new levels of partnership between public health and medicine, law enforcement and intelligence. However, these communities have little past experience working together and vast differences in their professional cultures, missions and needs. The ‘Dark Winter’ scenario also underscored the pivotal role of the media, and how a productive partnership with media will be paramount in communicating important information to the public and reducing the potential for panic.”

6.  Current situation
Although smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980, two official repositories of the variola virus were kept: one at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and the other at the Russian State Research Center for Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Novosibirsk in central Siberia. Those supplies were to be used for scientific research and vaccine development, but it is now known that both countries maintained secret biological weapons programs since 1980. By 1990 the Soviet Union had a facility capable of producing 80 to 100 tons of smallpox a year, and it typically warehoused 20 tons. Although Russia and the United States have since abandoned their biological weapons programs, other countries still have them.
It is thought that several rogue states like North Korea and Iraq and possibly terrorists have obtained samples of the smallpox virus.

A terrorist armed with a small hand-held aerosol could easily disperse 300 million smallpox viral particles within a confined area (airport terminal, train station, sports stadium, holiday parade gatherings, concerts). Toxins could also be spread through contamination of food or water.

During either bioterrorist scenario, unless the toxin is immediately known, vaccines are irrelevant. Besides terrorists will likely use a cocktail of agents to confuse detection systems and a major attack will quickly overwhelm the hospital system making immediate help for most impossible.

7.  We need to plan, not panic
If a biological, chemical, or radiological attack occurs in the U.S. the U.S. Department of Homeland Security may instruct you to Shelter in Place  until the pollutants have dissipated. If you live in a typical leaky home then the Department of Homeland Security currently recommends that you seal yourself in a room by using duct tape and plastic sheets. Moderate, or comprehensive, sealing of the exterior can help. One of the Dual-Benefit Solutions recommended by the Department of Homeland Security is to make your home’s outer shell very tight so you will save energy and have all of the rooms available if it becomes necessary to Shelter in Place.

Dr. Henderson recommends preparing your home to be a safer shelter by comprehensively sealing the air leaks in your home’s outer shell and installing a mechanical air supply system that can effectively filter the air coming into your home. He said this is a much better method than using duct tape and plastic sheets to seal yourself in one room after dangerous substances fill the air around your home.

Here is a partial list of the advantages of preparing your entire home so that you can quickly Shelter in Place:

• Instead of sealing yourself in one room, you will have all of the rooms and air in your home available for your use, while waiting for the pollutants to blow past your home.
• Microbes (anthrax, botulism, smallpox,…) will be kept outside where the wind can reduce their concentration and the sunshine can kill them.
• You will have access to all the air in your home, rather than the air available in one room sealed with plastic and duct-tape.
• Radioactive particles can be removed from incoming air by use of a high-efficiency air filter.
• Non-filterable gasses can be kept outside by simply turning-off the mechanical air supply system until after the gasses blow past your home.
• Even if you never have to Shelter in Place,  you can benefit in many ways throughout
  your life:
• Sealing air leaks can eliminate uncomfortable drafts.
• Sealing air leaks and providing filtered fresh air at a controlled rate can  reduce your costs for heating, air
• Filtration of incoming fresh air can remove allergenic, irritating and toxic particles.
• conditioning, and humidity control.
• Controlling the ventilation rate will help you to keep indoor humidity below 50% to discourage growth of molds and dust mites.

 

8.  During a Declared Biological Emergency
a)  If a family member becomes sick, it is important to be suspicious.
b)  Do not assume, however, that you should go to a hospital emergency room or that any illness is the result of the biological attack. Symptoms of many common illnesses may overlap.
c)  Use common sense, practice good hygiene and cleanliness to avoid spreading germs, and seek medical advice.
d)  Find out if you are in the area authorities believe to be in danger.
e)  If your symptoms match those described below and you are in the group  considered at risk, seek immediate emergency medical attention

Risk Factors for a Bio-Chem Attack
All biological weapons have a high failure rate in terrorist attacks because even though they are quite deadly dispersal/delivery of them in an effective way is difficult. Changes in ph of air quality, changes in temperature and humidity, changes in environment, and life span of the entity itself make efficient delivery of these bacteria and viruses difficult.

For example, Anthrax is, for all intents and purposes, 100 percent deadly when it enters the lungs of human beings. The minimum fatal dose for a person is one Anthrax spore. Yet spores that are small enough to infiltrate the blood vessels of the human lungs also tend to be highly static.
They clump together and adhere to dust and dirt particles, which then make them too big to infiltrate the lungs. This problem of Anthrax delivery means that any people at “ground zero” of an Anthrax attack would probably be infected if they were directly exposed to a cloud or vapor falling on them. But those who get a warning signal and retreat into sealed rooms would have a good chance of survival.

Anthrax has a very small rate of “secondary uptake,” which means that once it hits the ground, it tends to end its delivery cycle.
People who shelter in sealed rooms would have the unpleasant task of waiting it out for hours (as long as 24 hours) before they could move, and then would have to wait for days to see if they were infected or not, but as long as they remained calm and secluded from sprayed or “treated” (ie, infected) areas, they could escape infection.

Smallpox is far more persistent than Anthrax, (though less fatal, with a mortality rate at about 33% – 66%), and people at ground zero of an attack would fare the worst. But once it has been identified, people secure from the initial infection would have to be prepared to quarantine themselves to avoid contact from victims whose symptoms would not appear for several weeks. As difficult as this is, our society is better equipped to do this than it’s ever been before. Telecommuting is a fact of life.

Dispersing biological agents in a crop dusting plane is currently the quickest, most effective scenario yet envisioned. But the plane would have to fly quite low to drop enough of a concentration in a stable medium. From the evidence of one would-be terrorist who was arrested on September 22, 2001, using crop dusting equipment has at least entered the minds of some terrorist planners. But as of this writing, it has not yet been attempted.

The more likely and dangerous alternative is for a biological weapon to be entered into the water supply. Filtering and water purification in the home may hinder the effectiveness of such a plan, and certainly boiling water for six minutes would probably kill any biological entity. But poisoning could occur and last for several days before symptoms appear. Drinking bottled water or at least boiling all water that comes from the tap (for six minutes) before you drink it might be a good precautionary step, if you fear a biological attack.

Use Common Sense

1. Stay healthy, eat well and get plenty of rest
2. Use common sense to determine if there is immediate danger
3. Wash your hands with soap and water frequently
4. Stay away from crowds where others may be infected
5. Wear a face mask to reduce spreading germs

Symptoms
If a family member develops any of the symptoms below, keep them separated from others, practice good hygiene to avoid spreading germs, and seek medical advice.

1. A temperature of more than 100 degrees
2. Nausea and vomiting
3. Stomachache
4. Diarrhea
5. Pale or flushed face
6. Headache
7. Cough
8. Earache
9. Thick discharge from nose
10. Sore throat
11. Rash or infection of the skin
12. Red or pink eyes
13. Loss of appetite
14. Loss of energy or decreases in activity

Hygiene
If someone is sick, you should practice good hygiene and cleanliness to avoid spreading germs.

1. Wash your hands with soap and water frequently.
2. Do not share food or utensils.
3. Cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing.
4. Consider having the sick person wear a face mask to avoid spreading germs.
5. Plan to share health-related information with others, especially those who may need help. understanding the situation and what specific actions to take.

9.  Protective measures against bioterrorism

• The primary civil defense against biological weaponry is to wash one’s hands whenever one moves to a different building or set of people, and avoid touching door knobs, walls, the
  ground and one’s mouth and nose.
• Washing literally sends the germs down the drain.
• More exotic methods include decontamination, usually done with household chlorine bleach (Clorox, regular, unscented) (5% solution of sodium hypochlorite).
• One useful de-contamination is to leave shoes in an entrance-way and make people wade and hand wash in a footbath of bleach. Another useful technique is to periodically decontaminate floors and door knobs.
• Medical methods of civil defense include stockpiles of antibiotics and vaccines, and training for quick, accurate diagnosis and treatment. Many weaponized diseases are unfamiliar to general practitioners.

Items to have in your possession, as biological threats often cause a breakdown in normal societal routines.
•     An antibiotic such as Zithromax
•     Surgical masks
•     Gas Masks
•     A supply of canned goods, a can opener and packaged non-perishable foods.
•    Bottled drinking water: minimally, one gallon per day per person, for at least seven days.
•     A blanket or sleeping bag for each family member as well as a change of clothes (in the event that you are relocated)
•     Extra eyeglasses and prescriptions
•     Supplies for infants, and disabled family members

The economic consequences of a bioterrorism attack could be “devastating,”  crippling the agricultural based economy of the region and creating a potential food shortage. Appropriate dispersion of even a small volume of biological warfare agent may cause high morbidity and mortality, which may be exacerbated by public panic and social disruption.

10.  Beef up your immune system

• As soon as you learn of a bio-chem attack (if you are not already doing so), limit your intake of food so your body can devote more of its energies to the immune system rather than digesting dinner. Eat more raw foods, vegetables and juices.
• One of the best things you can do is load up on antioxidants. Vitamin C is one of the best vitamins to take. Store plenty of the natural variety with rosehips and bioflavonoids. Some recommendations suggest as much as 1000 mg. of vitamin C every two hours which requires fruit or juice intake so it doesn’t make you sick.
• Antioxidants Vitamin E and B6 have reputations for boosting the immune system as does Vitamin A which helps ward off infections to the eyes, respiratory system and gastrointestinal tract.
• Eat organic foods as much as possible. No one needs pesticides in his system.
• Remove the “white” foods from the diet: white rice, white flour products and white (refined) sugar. Two cans of soft drink can add approximately 24 tsp of sugar to your system – enough to suppress your immune system for five hours. If you’re grazing all day on pop and sweets, what ammo does your body have to fight disease?
• It should be noted that people who are in tiptop shape — those who are physically active and have not subsisted on junk food will have the best chance of fighting these poisons naturally. It’s never too late to exercise! Not only does exercise rev up the immune system, it relieves stress –
  something that makes us more susceptible to disease.
• Give your body plenty of rest and water. ‘Burning the candle’ at both ends depletes the body of disease-fighting capabilities.
• Raw garlic exists through the lungs which is what the biological agents are most likely to attack. Raw garlic has both antibacterial and anti-viral aspects. Place raw garlic into a glass of tomato juice and add one small clove. Drink every six hours.

Selecting a gas mask
When demand and fear are high, some retailers charge exorbitant prices for gas masks and related items. Jacking up prices, especially during economic hard times, is simply unconscionable, heartless behavior. If you need to economize, it is better to get a cheaper mask and the best filter.

Read also: Survival Manual/6. Medical/Personal Protective Equipment.