Weather prediction skills

(Survival manual / Prepper articles / Weather prediction skills)

 A.  Head For The Hills?
25 April  2013, Survival Life.com, by Joe Pasted from: http://www.survivallife.com/2013/04/25/head-for-the-hills/

Have you ever headed out in the morning to what you expect to be a bright and sunny day, only to have the bottom fall out of the sky hours later, leaving you soaked and miserable?

I have…

And while the weather is always unpredictable at best (especially in the spring) there is one simple trick that can you can do in order to keep yourself out of rough weather…. most of the time at least.

forecast cloudRead the clouds!

Cloud reading has been used as a basic primitive weather prediction for thousands of years, and unfortunately our protected, indoor lifestyle has caused us to forget how to read the world around us.

Clouds can easily be broken into four categories. These categories are high clouds, middle clouds, low clouds and clouds with vertical growth.

High clouds form at 16,000 – 43,000 feet. Basically, these are the clouds that you only encounter on the top of really high mountains or at the cruising altitude of a jet airplane. Due to the extreme conditions at which they form, they tend to be comprised primarily of ice crystals.

  •  High clouds include:
  • _Cirrostratus
  • _Cirrocumulus
  • _Cirrus
  • Middle clouds form at 6,500 to 23,000 feet. They are comprised of water, and, if cold enough, ice.
  • Middle clouds consist of:
  • _Altocumulus
  • _Altostratus
  • Low clouds form below 6,500 feet. These clouds are the ones that like to hang-around just above tall buildings. These clouds tend to contain water, but can also be comprised of snow if the weather gets cold enough. Low clouds include:_Stratocumulus
  • _Nimbostratus
  • _Stratus
  • And last, but not least, are clouds with vertical growth which tend to have a base that hangs really low (5,000 feet) and a top that climbs really high (over 50,000 feet). Clouds in this category include:_
    • _Cumulonimbus
  • _Cumulus

Clouds are one of the most reliable predictors of weather and cloud reading is a basic skill that every survivalist, hiker, camper and outdoors man should know. So how do you “read” the clouds? It’s fairly simple when you know what you are looking at.

There are 10 types of clouds that you should be able to recognize, but if you get their names confused, just remember that the higher the clouds, the better the weather will be.

forecast cloud read
1.  Cirrocumulus Clouds look like ripples of water on the surface of a lake. There are a sign of good weather and often dissipate to blue sky.
2. Altocumulus Clouds are fair weather clouds. They usually occur after a storm.
3.  Cumulonimbus Clouds are low thunder clouds that bring hail, strong wind, thunder and lightning. They have a characteristic flat, anvil-like top.
4.  Cumulus Clouds are easily recognizable, large, white, fluffy clouds. They indicate fair weather when they are widely separated, but if they are large and many headed, they are capable of bringing heavy showers.
5.  Cirrus Clouds are high altitude, wispy clouds, seen in fine weather.
6.  Cirrostratus Clouds are made up of ice particles and form a halo around the sun. If a Cirrus filled sky darkens and turns to Cirrostratus it is a sign of rain or snow, depending on temperature.
7.  Altostratus Clouds form a greyish veil over the sun or moon. If they get darker and thicken, it is a sign that rain is on the way.
8.  Nimbostratus Clouds form low blankets of cloud and indicate rain or snow, lasting for several hours.
9.  Stratocumulus Clouds can form a lumpy mass covering the entire sky and may produce light rain, but usually dissipate by the late afternoon or evening.
10. Stratus Clouds are low clouds that form a fog like layer and may produce drizzle. If they form thickly at night and cover the morning sky, they will usually burn off and produce a fine day.

So the next time you head out for the day, take a quick look at the sky and make a judgment call on whether or not you should bring sunglasses or an umbrella.

.

B. Weather Forecasting
WeatherShack.com
Pasted from: http://www.weathershack.com/static/ed-weather-forecasting.html

Sharpen Your Weather Forecasting Skillt

Deterioraating Weather Indicators:

  • Clouds lowering and thickening, ceiling lowers
  • Puffy clouds begin to develop vertically and darken
  • Sky is dark and threatening to the West
  • Clouds increasing in numbers, moving rapidly across the sky
  • Clouds at different heights moving in different directions
  • Clouds moving from East or Northeast towards the South
  • Heavy rain occurring at night
  • Barometer falling steadily or rapidly
  • Smoke from stacks lowers
  • Static on AM radio
  • Wind shifting North to East and possibly through East to South
  • There is a ring (halo) around the moon
  • If on land, leaves that grow according to prevailing winds turn over and show their backs
  • Strong wind and/or a red sky in the morning
  • Temperature far above or below normal for the time of year

Impending Precipitation Weather Indicators:

  • Distant objects seem to stand above the horizon
  • Sounds are very clear and can be heard for great distances
  • Transparent veil-like cirrus clouds thicken, ceiling lowers
  • Hazy and sticky air. Rain may occur in 18-36 hours
  • Halo around the sun or moon
  • Increasing South wind with clouds moving from the West
  • Wind (especially North wind) shifting to West and then South
  • Steadily falling barometer
  • Pale sunset
  • Red sky to the West at dawn
  • No dew after a hot day

Impending Strong Winds Weather Indicators:

  • Light, scattered clouds alone in a clear sky
  • Sharp, clearly defined edges to clouds
  • Yellow sunset
  • Unusually bright stars
  • Major changes in the temperature

Clearing Weather Indicators:

  • Cloud bases rise
  • Smoke from stacks rise
  • Wind shifts to West, especially from East through South
  • Barometer rises quickly
  • A cold front has passed in the past 4 to 7 hours
  • Gray early morning sky shows signs of clearing
  • Morning fog or dew
  • Rain stopping and clouds breaking away at sunset

Continuing Fair Weather Indicators:

  • Early morning fog that clears
  • Gentle wind from the West or Northwest
  • Barometer steady or rising slightly
  • Red sky to East with clear sky to the West at sunset
  • Bright moon and light breeze at night
  • Heavy dew or frost
  • Clear blue morning sky to West
  • Clouds dot the afternoon summer sky.\
    .

WEATHER FORECAST CHART

 

WIND DIRECTION: BAROMETER (AIR PRESSURE) AT SEA LEVEL: EXPECTED WEATHER:
SW To NW 30.10 to 30.20, steady Fair with little temp. change for 2 days
SW To NW 30.10 to 30.20, rising fast Fair followed by precipitation in 2 days
SW To NW 30.20 or above, steady Continued fair with little temp. change
SW To NW 30.20 or above, falling slowly Slowly rising temp; fair for 2 days
S To SE 30.10 to 30.20, falling slowly Precipitation within 24 hours
S To SE 30.10 to 30.20, falling fast Increasing wind; precipitation in 12 – 24 hours
SE To NE 30.10 to 30.20, falling slowly Precipitation in 12 – 18 hours
SE To NE 30.10 to 30.20, falling fast Wind rising; precipitation within 12 hours
E To NE 30.10 or above, falling slowly Rain (snow) within 24 hours in winter
E To NE 30.10 or below, falling fast Precipitation, wind
SE To NE 30.00 or below, falling slowly Steady rain for 1 – 2 days
SE To NE 30.00 or below, falling fast Rain and high wind clearing in 36 hours
S to SW 30.00 or below, rising slowly Clearing within a few hours then fair
S to E 29.80 or below, falling fast Severe storm imminent, clearing in 24 hrs
E to N 29.80 or below, falling fast Severe northeast gale, precipitation
Going to W 29.80 or below, rising fast Clearing and colder

Naturally there are other factors than these, but this gives you a rough guide to start with.

Tools to help you make a reasonable forecast:

forecast tools

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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